MLB insider Joel Sherman has been through enough free-agent winters to know when a market has narrowed. In a recent NY Post podcast, he said the pursuit of Tarik Skubal comes down to two teams, following the path Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto took two winters ago.
“If we were going to name who’s the ace of the sport, it would be a very short list: Yamamoto, Skubal, maybe Schlittler. Like Skubal’s on it, and it might be Skubal, to your point. He’s free, and so I think there’ll be interest in him, and yet I think it’s going to be like Yamamoto.”
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“I think it’s Mets and Dodgers. I have yet to talk to an executive or a scout who doesn’t think it’s going to be the Mets versus the Dodgers in this.”
The comparison sets the price. Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed a 12-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers before the 2024 season, still the largest guarantee given to a pitcher, and Skubal is expected to clear it. Skubal is expected to sign before the collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1.
Tarik Skubal won the AL Cy Young Award in 2024 and 2025, then went 12-7 with a 2.72 ERA, 186 strikeouts and a 0.964 WHIP over 158 2/3 innings split between Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles. Because he was traded during the season, he cannot receive a qualifying offer, so the team that signs him forfeits no draft pick.
Jon Heyman has said he favors the Mets, and Passan has called New York and Los Angeles the most obvious suitors. Los Angeles has a ceiling to manage. The Dodgers are unlikely to meet a deal longer than Yamamoto’s 12 years, though a shorter, high-average-value structure like Kyle Tucker’s four-year, $240 million contract could work.
New York has the clearer need. Nolan McLean became the Mets’ best starter in 2026, Freddy Peralta was traded away at the deadline, and Tarik Skubal might be the top priority for owner Steve Cohen. Before the Dodgers signed the Japanese phenom, the Mets offered Yamamoto $325 million.
Yankees Unlikely to Pursue Tarik Skubal Despite Rotation Fit
On paper, the New York Yankees fit too: a rotation with Cam Schlittler, Max Fried and Gerrit Cole would only get deeper. However, insider Mark Feinsand reported that this week’s GM meetings in Las Vegas found little expectation of a serious attempt for Tarik Skubal.
“I would be shocked if the Yankees made a real play for Skubal,” a rival executive said. “They have too many other holes to fill.”
Those holes are on the other side of the ball. Hal Steinbrenner pointed at his offense when discussing the season’s disappointing finish, and the numbers explain why: the Yankees ranked ninth in runs scored and 11th in OPS, with second base, third base and catcher the weakest spots.
Anthony Volpe could shift to second, while Teruaki Sato, the 2025 Central League MVP and 2026 Triple Crown winner, fits at third. Closer David Bednar and setup man Paul Blackburn are free agents too.
Joel Sherman’s read leaves little room for a third bidder. For the Yankees, a winter that starts with catching, third base and the bullpen is unlikely to end with the most expensive pitcher in the sport.
Edited by Kaushani Chatterjee
