Despite its 96-year history, the World Cup is an event with a limited number of data points. After all, it’s a quadrennial event that missed two editions due to World War II. With just 22 men’s World Cups to date, it’s still a young event in terms of total tournaments.
That simply means there are a number of consistent trends among winning teams that we can use to try to project who could win the 2026 World Cup. Let’s apply those common traits among previous winners to narrow down the 48-team field and see which teams are still left standing.
Before starting, a caveat. The most obvious common trait for projecting a winner is to pick among the previous winners. Only eight countries have ever won a World Cup. One of them, Italy, did not qualify for 2026, and Uruguay, which won two of the first four World Cups, is a long shot this year. The other six (Brazil, Germany, England, Argentina, France, Spain) are all among the top seven spots in the betting odds to win the biggest event for the world’s game.
This could be a quick and lazy endeavor where that one trait is applied, and then we say one of those six teams is likely to win it this year. While it is very likely that one of those six countries wins this World Cup, I’m going to resist that urge and pretend to be open-minded that there could be a first-time winner this year.
No country from outside Europe or South America has ever won a World Cup
Teams eliminated: 26, including the United States, Mexico, Canada, Morocco
This immediately cuts many teams, including all three hosts. This stat goes beyond World Cup wins; it also extends to simply making it to the final. Thirteen different nations have competed in a World Cup final: 10 from Europe and three from South America.
Even as far as semifinals go, only three times has a country from outside the two dominant continents made it: the United States back in the original World Cup in 1930, South Korea as co-hosts in 2002 and Morocco at the last World Cup. Morocco has emerged as an improving national team, winning the 2025 Under-20 World Cup, taking bronze at the 2024 Olympics and making the quarterfinals at the last two U-17 World Cups since that 2022 run. The Atlas Lions could break this streak at some point, but they’re still long shots for this year.
Host countries do have a strong record at World Cups, with six wins. Four host countries won their first World Cup on home soil, but none of them were complete surprise winners. That brings us to the next trend.
No country with an Elo Rating outside the top 17 entering a World Cup has ever won one
Teams eliminated: Paraguay, Austria, Scotland, Czechia, Sweden, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Elo Ratings are famous from the chess world and can be applied to national teams, even retroactively. Whatever you think of the FIFA World Rankings, they have only been around since 1992. The Elo Ratings can be traced back to the first World Cup and show that the World Cup has historically not been kind to underdogs, especially those not hosting.
The lowest Elo Rating of a World Cup winner entering the tournament was Uruguay at 17 in 1950. Uruguay winning in Brazil is one of the most famous upsets in World Cup history.
Extending the cutoff to 17 is being kind. Uruguay is the only winner outside the top 15, and 15 of the 22 winners ranked inside the top four.
Mexico (currently at 19 in the world), Morocco (24), Canada (25) and the United States (all the way down at 36) would all have fallen off here even if they weren’t eliminated in the first category.
No European team has won the World Cup without having multiple Ballon d’Or winners
Teams eliminated: Belgium, Croatia, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey
It makes sense that countries that produce the best players in the world also have successful teams.
The Ballon d’Or, first given out in 1956, was only awarded to players from Europe until 1995, so it’s not fair to apply this to South American teams (though Brazil and Argentina have combined for 13 wins in the 30 times the award has been handed out since).
Winning a World Cup tends to lead to a Ballon d’Or win (seven out of the 11 times when a winning team has had eligible players), but this rule still applies without those instances.
Of European countries, France has the most different players to win the award with six. Germany and Italy have five different winners, England has four and the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain have three each, as does the former Soviet Union (one Russian, two Ukrainians).
No team has won a World Cup with a foreign-born manager
Teams eliminated: Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, England, Portugal, Uruguay
To be honest, this stat is a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The countries that are the best at the sport tend to have more qualified managers and have a tendency of being prideful in hiring one of their own. There is an undeniable correlation, but it’s harder to argue causality.
Would other foreign managers have been able to win with some of the squads that won World Cups in the past? Probably, but it’s also a pretty good stat.
When Brazil hired Italian manager Carlo Ancelotti, and England hired German manager Thomas Tuchel, this was part of the discussion. It’s harsh to hold it against a team for having Ancelotti, one of the most accomplished managers in the sport. This is a stat that will eventually come to an end, but for this exercise, we’re going to say it goes on for at least another four years.
Portugal is led by Spaniard Roberto Martínez while Colombia (Néstor Lorenzo), Ecuador (Sebastián Beccacece) and Uruguay (Marcelo Bielsa) all have Argentine managers. There are six Argentines managing at the 2026 World Cup, more than any other country.
Teams remaining: Argentina, France, Germany, Netherlands, Spain
There’s nothing overly shocking about these remaining teams. Spain and France are the top two betting favorites entering the tournament. Argentina is the defending champion. Germany has won four World Cups, each at least 16 years apart, demonstrating their ability to win in different eras.
The Netherlands is the only team on the list that hasn’t won a World Cup, infamously losing finals in 1974, 1978 and 2010. The Dutch have tons of history in the sport and a talented roster that is still among the top eight favorites entering the tournament.
