Welcome to The Athletic’s daily World Cup Predictions.
This article gives you the lowdown on all today’s games but with the bonus of some friendly competition…
Throughout the tournament, we will have two Athletic writers (Andy Jones or Elias Burke — with help from our experts from each of the 48 countries) pitting our soccer knowledge against a different Athletic subscriber each day and ‘Algo’, the shiny new algorithm from The Athletic, which is making its computerised debut during the 2026 World Cup.
Oh, and a dog called Stanley and a six-year-old called Wilfred (who some of you may remember from last season’s Premier League predictions).
Our guest subscriber today is Ben, from Australia, who supports Australia and Arsenal. Good luck, Ben!
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What happened on Matchday 20?
After a dramatic opening slate of knockout games, matchday 20 had a lot to live up to, but it started with one of the most exciting and evenly-matched ties in the round of 32. Norway and Ivory Coast are young, emerging teams with many similarities. They’re tough and physical in midfield, with plenty of technical skill, and have pace and trickery on the wings. Their quality in wide areas was evident for Norway’s first goal, with Antonio Nusa cutting inside from the left and deliciously curling a shot past Yahia Fofana in the 39th minute to put Stale Solbakken’s side 1-0 ahead.
Having started the game on the bench, Amad, who plays his club football for Manchester United, entered the fray on the hour mark with purpose and scored an even better equaliser after cutting inside from the left. But for all their shared qualities, Norway’s X factor lies at the point of attack. Erling Haaland was far from his best, but he was in the right place and the right time to convert into an open net from close range in the 86th minute, putting Norway 2-1 ahead, booking their place in the last 16, and handing points to the experts, the reader, Wilfred and Algo.
Erling Haaland is always dangerous for Norway (Julian Finney – FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)
As for the winners of the day’s second game? Well, that was never really in doubt. France were at their terrifyingly exhilarating best against Norway’s Scandinavian neighbours Sweden, winning 3-0 thanks to a double from Kylian Mbappe and an excellent finish from the in-demand Bradley Barcola. With assists for Ousmane Dembele and a pair of goals created by Michael Olise, all four of France’s attackers registered a goal contribution. Having also kept a clean sheet against Viktor Gyokeres and Alexander Isak, this may have been the most decisive and convincing performance by a contender yet. It was another clean sweep for the humans and robots among us, with Stanley’s Sweden pick proving a touch wishful.
Credit to any England fan who stayed up for Mexico vs Ecuador to scout their potential last-16 opponents should they beat the Democratic Republic of Congo today, with kick-off delayed by one hour due to storms. We were split on this one at Predictions HQ, with the Algo and Wilfred backing the hosts, while the experts, the reader and Stanley fancied Ecuador to frustrate Mexico and progress to the next round. As it transpired, Mexico were dominant in a 2-0 win, overwhelming an Ecuador side who are going home after their dramatic 2-1 group-stage win over Germany.
Due to that pick, Algo has pulled level with the experts at the top of the leaderboard (51), though the experts’ 11-game streak is the decisive tie-breaker.
Six-year-old Wilfred is now within touching distance on 50, while the readers are still in with a shout on 47.
How do the predictions work?
It’s pretty simple: we will give you some background on each game, players to watch and facts on the two teams. Then we will predict the outcome.
We will maintain a leaderboard of how everyone gets on with their predictions (ranked by the percentage they get correct) but we’ll also keep a record of “streaks” — the number of predictions everyone gets right in a row. These streaks also form a crucial part of The Athletic’s interactive Soccer Pick’ems feature, allowing you to make your own picks every round as well.
So come along and get involved, and check back each day to see how we are getting on in the leaderboard — and probably more importantly, whether you, the subscribers, or Stanley or Wilfred are beating us.
Or, worst of all, whether ‘Algo’ can prove data and statistics know all when it comes to predicting.
Good luck, and enjoy!
Why not try The Athletic’s World Cup Tracker, where you can find a forecast projecting the likelihood that each team will progress through each stage of the tournament, along with a bracket projecting the most likely round-of-32 matchups, current standings, and a bunch of other neat forecasts and scenarios.
Predictions for Matchday 21
England vs Democratic Republic of Congo, round of 32, kick-off 12pm ET, 5pm BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 2/5. England are a far more talented side than DR Congo, but they struggled to break down Ghana in their second group game, who frustrated Thomas Tuchel’s side with a low block, a similar strategy to that expected from Congo.
Watch Rating: 3/5. If Congo can play the game on their terms, it is expected to be a slow, frustrating match for an England side who have lacked creative inspiration in the final third since their thrilling opening 4-2 win over Croatia. With a not-insignificant prospect of another underdog upset, this could be worth tuning in for, even if the football on offer may not be the most exciting.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “The mood in England has become slightly downbeat about their nation’s chances of ending their 60-year wait for a World Cup, following the below-par performances against Ghana and Panama in the group stage. Tuchel has put a lot of thought into building a squad to last the duration of the tournament, with a particular focus on winning matches against the competition from the quarter-final stage onwards, but there is a growing concern that he has overlooked the potential danger of an early slip-up.
“An injury on the eve of England’s first game to Tino Livramento was addressed by bringing a sixth natural centre-back, Trevoh Chalobah, into the squad, but, with the benefit of hindsight, Tuchel may now wish he had added another full-back, following injuries to Reece James and his apparent deputy, Jarell Quansah. There are also questions about the harmony in the final third, with none of England’s four wingers delivering a particularly eye-catching performance thus far, while a lingering hamstring issue for Declan Rice is a concern, albeit one that he has managed well for six months.
England head coach Thomas Tuchel (Eddie Keogh – The FA/The FA via Getty Images)
“Concerningly for England, DR Congo appear precisely the profile they aren’t built to overwhelm. Sebastien Desabre’s side are very comfortable sitting deep in a low block and frustrating their opponents, with the physical capacity to compete well from defensive set pieces. Congo conceded twice across their meetings with Colombia and Portugal, demonstrating their ability to frustrate sides with world-class attacking talent, and have a reputation as one of the most solid sides in Africa. They also possess the attacking quality to hurt opponents, with star man Yoane Wissa having scored three times at the tournament already after a difficult debut season with Newcastle United in the Premier League.
“It’s far from a foregone conclusion, but England should have enough to progress – even if it takes extra time.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: ENGLAND WIN
Guest subscriber Ben: ENGLAND WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: ENGLAND WIN
Stanley the dog: ENGLAND WIN
Algo: ENGLAND WIN
Belgium vs Senegal, round of 32, kick-off 4pm ET, 9pm BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 5/5. Belgium may be slightly more talented, but Senegal are a strong unit with a winning culture. Among the most evenly matched and potentially exciting ties of the round of 32.
Watch Rating: 5/5. Two sides with enormous attacking talent and the potential to blow opponents away with pace and creativity in the final third. And there’s particular interest for USMNT fans: if they get past Bosnia and Herzegovina, the winner of this game will be their last-16 opponent.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Belgium ended their group stage in style, thrashing New Zealand 5-1, but they had underwhelmed until then in what was arguably the tournament’s weakest group. Caught between the golden generation of yesteryear and the new era headlined by Jeremy Doku, they looked disjointed in disappointing draws with Egypt (1-1) and Iran (0-0). And while they are protected by Thibaut Courtois, one of the finest goalkeepers in world football for more than a decade, the defence lacks experience at this level. It is awaiting its first proper test — something Senegal will surely provide.
“Senegal are among the strongest sides in Africa, with two Africa Cup of Nations titles in five years, though they were subsequently stripped of their 2025-26 trophy by the African federation after walking off the pitch in stoppage time of their 1-0 extra-time win over Morocco, delaying play for 17 minutes. They are led by legendary forward Sadio Mane, who, at 34, is no longer the electric athlete he once was, but they are not short of athleticism. Ismaila Sarr is one of the fastest wingers at the tournament, and they don’t lack depth, with Everton forward Iliman Ndiaye, one of the most naturally gifted and exciting dribblers to watch in the Premier League, among those expected to start on the bench.
Our experts predict a win for Senegal (Cole Burston / AFP via Getty Images)
“Like their opposition, the questions for Senegal lie in defensive areas. Long-time No 1 and recipient of FIFA’s ‘The Best’ goalkeeper award in 2021, Edouard Mendy, is back with the squad after suffering a knee injury during the 3-2 loss to Norway, but it is unclear whether he is fit to start. In defence, Kalidou Koulibaly, 35, has looked past his prime at this tournament, leaving the door open for more inexperienced options to stake their claim. Against decisive forward players like Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and Leandro Trossard, all of whom scored in Belgium’s rout of New Zealand, and not to mention their star attacker Doku, Senegal’s defensive instability may be exposed.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: SENEGAL WIN
Guest subscriber Ben: BELGIUM WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: SENEGAL WIN
Stanley the dog: SENEGAL WIN
Algo: BELGIUM WIN
USMNT vs Bosnia and Herzegovina, round of 32, kick-off 8pm ET, 1am BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 3/5. Weighted by perceived talent and pre-tournament expectations, the USMNT have a strong case to be the outstanding side of the World Cup so far. Having rested most of their starters in the third group game, there’s no reason to suggest they won’t impress again, but Bosnia thrive in underdog situations, so it could be a trickier test than many anticipate.
Watch Rating: 4/5. The USMNT playing their first knockout game since 2014, in front of a raucous home crowd in Seattle? Count me in.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Look, it’s never nice to lose a game of football, but here at Predictions HQ we broadly agree with Mauricio Pochettino: you absolutely should rest your stars at a tournament, even at the expense of losing, if it gives you a better chance of success further down the line. It’s evident that the USMNT are not here just to take part — they have their sights set on reaching the quarter-finals for the first time since 2002. To do that, they will have to find a way past Bosnia, a side with a reputation for underdog upsets.
It’s getting serious for Pochettino and USMNT now (Alex Livesey – FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)
“The 64th-ranked side in the world eliminated Italy on penalties in qualifying to reach North America this summer, having knocked Wales out in a shootout from the spot five days earlier. They are a side built to withstand pressure and seize their moments, and that is what they will have to do if they are to upset the USMNT on home turf.
“Ensure you’re in your seat with snacks at hand at the first whistle. The USMNT flew out of the blocks in each of their group games and will want to do so again here.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: USMNT WIN
Guest subscriber Ben: USMNT WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: USMNT WIN
Stanley the dog: USMNT WIN
Algo: USMNT WIN
