Nearly 27 percent of players exited with the Los Angeles Chargers loss on Sunday, and now I fully understand Adam’s aversion to recommending them, EVER, for Survivor. It’s not too different from being a Buffalo Bills fan.
My pick, Detroit, had my heart in my throat and my fingernails embedded in the sofa arm for several minutes of sheer panic. That it came down to a missed two-point conversion in overtime is not the kind of win I’m taking very confidently into Week 2. Big picture, though, eight of the ten biggest favorites did pull out victories in Week 1, proving that we’re not flying totally blind this season.
Let’s go through our picks for Week 2 with general strategy, chalk picks and contrarian picks.
NFL survivor pool strategy Week 2
Renee Miller: A bit shell-shocked from the close call in Week 1, I’m again looking to take an easy W in Week 2. Who looked the worst last week? Sometimes picking the team you want to beat is easier than picking the winner. I’m eyeing Miami and Cleveland for sure. Atlanta, too. I’m avoiding those pesky New Orleans Saints, along with the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals until more information is available. Even Chicago, with their 59-point offensive explosion, revealed a defense that can’t be trusted this week, especially vs. division rival Minnesota, who put up 39 points.
For me, Week 2 is about finding a team that had a strong defensive start facing an inept offense. It takes a few weeks to really understand how new players and coaches will produce on the field, and I’m looking to be as confident as I can be right now. I know there are going to be weeks where hard decisions are required, but I’m not going to manufacture that this early in the season.
Adam Gretz: You think you’re shell-shocked? Imagine my horror watching the Cardinals block a punt, while already leading, to set themselves up for a first-and-goal and put the game out of reach against my Week 1 chalk pick.
I shouldn’t be too shocked that my Chargers pick burned me, but somehow I still am. I really thought that pick, in that matchup, was as close to Chargers-proof as you could possibly get. And honestly, my confidence in the Chargers wasn’t even necessarily about trusting them, but my lack of trust in a Cardinals team that seemed like it was going to be a popular target opponent in a lot of weeks for your pool. I still believe they will be a good team for you to target. But credit to them for causing chaos. I am generally a fan of chaos in sports, but not when I am on the receiving end of it. Such is life in the NFL.
As for Week 2, and especially if you are able to buy back into your pool after trusting the Chargers, the key is going to be not just making sure you get to Week 3, but also trying to eliminate the noise you saw in Week 1.
Given how little teams play their starters in the preseason, Week 1 can produce some noisy results that are not really a great indicator of what is ahead for this season.
Are the Baltimore Ravens that good? Are the Indianapolis Colts that bad? Will Arizona be better than everybody anticipated? Did the Rams simply get burned by a dumb travel schedule? We will start finding out the answers to those questions (and more) in the coming weeks. In the meantime, there are still some favorable matchups that give you a good chance of getting to next week.
Just don’t trust the Chargers. Not even against Las Vegas.
Offense takes center stage in Week 1
Mike Sando
Week 2 chalk picks
Renee: San Francisco 49ers over Miami Dolphins
I told you I was going to be really obvious. I’m fine with playing checkers this week.
San Francisco was efficient and effective on both sides of the ball last Thursday night in Australia, showing up a Rams team that was the preseason Super Bowl favorite. I’m not going to debate the travel decision LA made, but a rested and healthy 49ers team got the job done. Decisively.
Though rookie darling De’Zhaun Stribling was injured in the game, the 49ers proved to have plenty of playmakers for Brock Purdy, not least of which was a very effective backfield. Veteran tight end George Kittle will have another 10 days of rest and should play more in Week 2. Also, Miami just gave up 147 total yards and two scores to Ashton Jeanty, who acted as the Las Vegas Raiders’ primary receiver. That bodes pretty well for Christian McCaffrey and Kaelon Black this week.
On the other side of the ball, Miami’s lone bright spot was rookie wide receiver Caleb Douglas. If the Raiders can hold you to 13 points, the 49ers defense will shut you down. This is the biggest mismatch of the week, and maybe of the season. Do yourself a favor and advance to Week 3 with SF as your pick now.
Adam: Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Cleveland Browns
While the first week can result in a lot of weird results and static that you have to decipher, I do think the Dolphins and Browns gave a pretty good indicator of what they are, and what they are going to be. Those are two bad rosters with major quarterback questions. The Browns’ quarterback situation isn’t even really a question as much as it is a problem, and there’s simply not enough talent on the roster to help make up for it.
This is a bad team. A really bad team.
I don’t love Tampa Bay this season, but I actually don’t hate the way the Bucs played in their loss to Cincinnati. They had some issues, but they moved the ball at times before turnovers started to haunt them.
I wouldn’t expect Baker Mayfield to fumble three times again. I wouldn’t expect them to lose four fumbles as a team again.
I also like the angle of a Mayfield revenge game against his former team.
Looking at Tampa Bay’s schedule, I don’t see a ton of possibilities where I’d feel overly comfortable picking them again. They’re not going to be heavy underdogs very often, but there are a lot of coin-flip games in there. This should not be one of those.
Week 2 contrarian picks
Renee: New England Patriots over Pittsburgh Steelers
The Patriots are pretty big favorites, but not expected to be chosen by many in survivor pools this week, thanks partly to the total breakdown we witnessed in Seattle last week. That’s an ideal combination for a contrarian pick. If you skated into Week 2 with Jacksonville or Chicago, you might be feeling up for more of a challenge than selecting San Francisco.
To be clear, that isn’t me. I’m picking SF. But I’m betting on the Patriots to win and cover here. I watched the game, and I know Drake Maye looked awful (along with everyone else in silver and blue), but I think when some more game receipts are in, we’re going to be giving Seattle a lot more credit and forgiving the Pats for this ugly opening loss.
New England is simply the more talented team in this game. They’re home, with 11 days of rest and reflection on that season-opening loss. They are going to be all kinds of eager to show the world who they really are.
Meanwhile, the Steelers eeked out a win over the QB-less Falcons at home, mainly on the strength of their defense and kicker Chris Boswell. Offensively, there wasn’t much to gloat about. The Pittsburgh defense is really the reason New England is a contrarian choice this week. It’s tempered by the game being played in New England and the Pats having the additional rest and time to work out the mistakes that were made in Week 1, but the Steelers are not a team I’m going to feel great about picking against.
Adam: Carolina Panthers over Atlanta Falcons
I live in Pittsburgh. I follow the Steelers closely. I see a lot of their games. And I think that’s a really strong contrarian pick. Even though I think New England is due for a regression this year, I can’t imagine they fold at home the way they did a week ago. I also still don’t trust the Steelers offense, even under a more offensive-minded coach.
As for my contrarian pick, yeah, picking a team that allowed 59 points in Week 1 might seem crazy, but there are a couple of things to keep in mind here. One is that a contrarian pick is supposed to go against the grain a little bit. The second is that the 2026 Falcons are not the 2026 Bears.
There were actually a few things to like about Carolina’s performance offensively in Week 1, including the fact that Bryce Young threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. The Falcons don’t have a great defense to begin with, and are still missing their top edge rushers. That is going to continue to be a problem.
What’s really a problem for Atlanta is the quarterback situation. It’s still grim, and that will limit what playmakers like Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London can actually do to make an impact.
Cooper Rush was miserable in Pittsburgh on Sunday, and there is no word (yet) from coach Kevin Stefanski on who is getting the Week 2 start. Given the health of the top three quarterbacks, there is probably no good option because I can not imagine any of them will be 100 percent here. Even if Rush is 100 percent, he is the third-string quarterback for a reason.
Carolina swept the season series against Atlanta a year ago, and I do like its chances here given what its offense did a week ago and the injury situation with the Falcons.
