This Saturday of 2026 might have been the oddest moving day in U.S. Open history. The movement wasn’t seen in low scores (just two players broke par) nor was it seen in excruciatingly-high scores. Other than Harry Higgs and Justin Thomas, the golfers that posted higher than 74 were already out of contention. What did take place was a respositioning. The leader almost improved by a shot, until a bogey at 18 brought him back to level on the day.
What did happen, was an extension of the lead. What was a four-shot advantage at Saturday’s dawn, grew to a six-shot margin by Saturday’s dusk. The names of the pursuing players changed, but the leader did not. Had this been 1995 Shinnecock, or the 2004 iteration, or even the 2018 version, all numbers would have been higher. Keeping the fairways at width enable players to drive the ball into play, on most occasions. If the Los Angelels Country Club in 2023 was the height (or width) of a new style of U.S. Open course, 2026 Shinnecock is the Eastern-Lite version.
Shinnecock’s routing and greens are still the star of the show. Placement on the incorrect side of the fairway leads to a reduction of likelihood of a successful approach. Arrival on the wrong tier of the green, or the green surrounds, reduces the chance of a putt or chip for birdie, or even par. Don’t believe that the bunkers are merciful, nor that the rough has been tamed. There are plenty of places to lose, without warning, a pair of shots.
In 2026, one golfer has navigated his way better than the entire field, to the tune of two shots per round. It’s a complicated numbers game, as the cast of pursuers has changed overnight. On Saturday morning, Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, and Collin Morikawa represented a threat to Wyndham Clark. On Sunday morning, we will look to Scottie Scheffler, Tom Kim, and Sahith Theegala to track the leader. Sunday in Southampton will offer bottleneck traffic and, perhaps, a bottleneck at the top of the leader’s board. Our crystal ball is cloudy, but we do know five things that mattered on day three. We’d like to share those with you.
Item #1: Scottie Scheffler is in position
The most valuable plot line in the days prior to the start of this Open championship, was Scottie Scheffler’s pursuit of the career Grand Slam. Six golfers have achieved this level of recognition among the male professional golfers of the last two centuries. The first five are Jones, Sarazen, Nicklaus, Player, and Woods, and they were joined in 2025, finally, by McIlroy.
Also in 2025, Scottie Scheffler won The Open championship at Royal Portrush. He did so in the same manner that he had won his previous four major titles: by a wide margin. At Shinnecock Hills, Scheffler finds himself in a second-place tie, six shots behind the leader. With no offense to Sam Stevens, Sahith Theegala, nor Tom Kim, Scheffler’s is the name that should matter.
Scheffler began Saturday with bogey at the opening two holes. He steadied the ship through the course’s turn for home, then did something that no other golfer in the field did on the third day. He began to make birdies. He collected one at the tenth hole, then three consecutive from holes fourteen through sixteen. If not for the combination of weak iron, ambitious bunker shot, and under-read putt at the 17th hole, he might have finished one shot closer to the leader.
The thing that matters most for Scheffler is his tee time. He was the first to reach the clubhouse at one-under par, which meant that he, and not the remaining triumvirate, will walk all 18 holes on Sunday with the current leader. It will be reminiscent of a U.S. Amateur final, in which Scheffler finds himself six holes down at lunch. With 18 holes left to play, he needs to pursue his prey, and chase him down.
Item #2: Is Emiliano Grillo golf’s Messi?
Emiliano Grillo hails from the same land of the azulceleste as Lionel Messi. Both Argentines currently have the attention of the world of sport. Grillo was one of two golfers to navigate Shinnecock’s turbulent fairways and uneven greens in red figures. Grillo had a run of four consecutive birdies to close his front nine. Perhaps he played in a vacuum, in which the troublesome winds that detoured the other golfers, had zero effect on him. Perhaps he figured out a secret to William Flynn’s masterpiece. Coming home, Grillo wasn’t as brilliant, but he was effeicient. He toured the second nine in plus-one figures. It wasn’t the best on the day, but it was far from the worst.
Grillo finds himself seven shots adrift of Wyndham Clark. He resides in a tie for sixth with Keith Mitchell, Xander Schauffele, and Sam Burns. Grillo needs another 67 to find contention on Sunday. Even if Clark comes back to the field, someone else will rise up, and Grillo will need to match that effort. The journeyman has won on tour, and has contended in major events, albeit not in a stretch run. Grillo tees off on Sunday in the 2:08 tee time, behind just two pairings. He will partner Sam Stevens, certainly not an intimidating mate. The stars may have aligned for Grillo. Time will tell.
Item #3: Theegala and Stevens
The last time I saw Sahith Theegala, he was matched with Akshay Bhatia in a Good Good youtube video, against Sean Walsh and Brad Dahlke. Theegala’s personality came through like shimmer on a morning pond. Theegala is a man at peace with himself and his world, and that might just make him the ideal contender on a U.S. Open Sunday.
Sam Stevens has not competed against the Good Good brethren, so I had to do a deeper dive into his career, to get a sense of his self and his chances. Stevens last won a professional event in 2021, at the Colombia Classic on PGA Tour Americas. The CC remains his only monetary win to date, although he has earned a pair of runner-up finishes on the PGA Tour. What a world this would be, if his second pro victory was the U.S. Open! Stevens aided Viktor Hovland and Matthew Wolff in the 2018 NCAA Team Championship, as their Oklahoma State Cowboys assemblage won the title. Not much help, but maybe, just a little?
Theegala played a balanced, almost boring, third day at Shinnecock. He had a birdie, a bogey, and sixteen pars. Those sort of days used to win Open titles, back in the days of narrow fairways, trees, and hyper rough. Like Grillo, if Theegala or Stevens can reach four-under par, I like their chances. Stevens will have to decrease his bogey load (four on day three) to contend.
Item #4: Tom Kim
Wasn’t it just after the worldwide pandemic, when Tom Kim was the It Guy? Kim won back-to-back Shriners in 2022 and 2023, and added a Wyndham (spooky!) title, also in 2022. He was included in the indoor golf extravaganza known as TGL, on no less than Tiger Woods’ JGL squad. The past three years have brought zero titles to the young Korean, so to say that he is overdue, is an understatement. Is he due for a major win? Perhsps he is.
Kim’s third round was not of the postcard variety. He missed five of fourteen driving fairways, and eleven greens. He made bogey on one-third of his holes. His 28 putts were all that kept him in the final four games for Sunday. What does Kim need to improve on day four? Everything. He needs to corral his driver, harness his irons, and putt well. It is asking a lot, but this is the U.S. Open.
Item #5: Everyone else and a winner
Matt Fitzpatrick was the unexpected surprise on Saturday. His game appeared ideal for Shinnecock, then he began to miss fairways (six in total, one worse than Tom Kim) and greens (seven in total, same as Kim) and putts (33 putts on the day.) Fitzy would need the touch of the gods on Sunday, to add a second national title to his 2022 title at Brookline.
The trio of Schauffele, Fleetwood, and Morikawa, shows how diffcult individual golf is. Both Collin and Xander, as mentioned before in this column, have two of four major titles and each lacks the U.S. Open. Did they want it too much on Saturday? Probably. As for Fleetwood, success in Ryder Cup does not translate to major wins. He came close in 2018 at Shinnecock Hills, and had another chance in 2026. He needed Grillo’s third round, but everything went against him. Fleetwood hit 11 of 14 fairways, and 14 of 18 greens. He took 33 putts, which translates to not close enough when on the green, and not successful enough, when trying to save par. Like Fitzpatrick, Schauffele, and Morikawa, Tommy will need divine intervention on Sunday for a chance at the chalice.
Here is our longshot pick. He is the fellow who opened this championship with 41 shots, only to follow it with a second nine of 29 strokes. He is Josh Allen’s favorite pro-am partner, and he is known among friends and allys as Cashmere Keith. He is both well-dressed and powerful. On this Sunday, this Father’s Day of 2026, Keith Mitchell becomes everyone’s Daddy by posting 63 and winning the U.S. Open.
