For a while there, before Morocco twice came back from behind to ultimately win the game, it looked like Haiti could finish Group C with three points and still finish bottom.
It could still happen yet at this summer’s World Cup. Most of the incomplete groups still hold at least the possibility of a side finishing bottom of their group with three points and thus being eliminated at the group stage.
Already-eliminated Turkiye, for instance, would do exactly that if they were to beat the United States on Thursday.
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How three World Cup teams could finish third with one point
That raises the question: given that the third-placed sides are all judged against one another, regardless of what the other sides in their groups did…could we see one country eliminated with three points while another nation with fewer points goes through?
The short answer is yes: failing to make it to three points but finishing third still technically gives a side a chance to make it into the round of 32.
That’s because only the worst four third-placed teams are eliminated, and there are are enough groups where it is technically possible to finish third with fewer than three points.
Those groups are as follows:
Lowest possible points required to finish third
- Group A: 1 point: If Mexico beat Czech Republic AND South Korea beat South Africa. A draw in one of those games instead would mean the third-placed side finishes with two points.
- Group E: 1 point: Same situation as Group A, with Curacao (vs Ivory Coast) and Ecuador (vs Germany) the games in question.
- Group G: 2 points: If New Zealand beat Belgium, and/or if Egypt beat Iran.
- Group H: 2 points: If Uruguay lose to Spain.
- Group I: 1 point: If Senegal and Iraq draw with one another
- Group K: 2 points: If DR Congo and Uzbekistan draw with one another
In the unlikely event that five of those six groups go that way, then one team with two points would make it through to the round of 32.
In the even more unlikely scenario that all six groups go that way, then two teams with two points would be into the knockouts.
That does however mean that there is no possibility of a team making it through as a third-placed team with just one point.
