Scotland’s World Cup 2026 hopes are hanging by a thread. After Wednesday’s 3-0 loss against Brazil, their grip on a place in the round of 32 was already weak before South Africa condemned South Korea to third place in Group A.
Steve Clarke’s team immediately dropped from sixth to seventh in the ranking of third-placed teams. Eighth will take them through. Ninth will not. And there are games in hand for all five teams below them.
The agonising wait could endure all the way to the very end of the group stage in the early hours of Sunday and one worrying outcome involving Group J rivals Algeria and Austria.
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Will there be a repeat of the Disgrace of Gijon?
Jordan have already been eliminated in last place in Group J. World champions Argentina should beat them despite already being home and hosed at the top of the group, leaving Algeria and Austria to fight it out for second.
Or not, as the case may be. There’s little incentive to finish second in the group, which is one of the four groups whose runners-up will face a group winner in the round of 32. That’s likely to be European champions Spain.
How could that affect Scotland?
Neither Algeria nor Austria have much to gain from winning their match, nor anything to lose. A draw takes them both through and, crucially for Scotland, removes Group J from the list of possible answers to the prayers – a list that would, if still intact by kick-off, be down to one.
A draw in Kansas City would see Algeria remain in third place but gain a point. They’re currently just one goal better off than Scotland’s goal difference of -3 and a loss would wipe that out at the very least.
As such, Algeria are one of the teams in the third-place ranking Scotland could catch without kicking another ball. The question is whether Austria have enough desire to win that game to run the risk of losing it.
There are several relevant games to be played before that eventuality but if just one team from Group G, K, E or I overtake Scotland and nobody above suffers a heavy enough loss to drop beneath them, it’s a game that will be worth watching very closely.
That Austria and Algeria should be the teams involved in this possibility is a strange twist of fate. They were in the same group in 1982 and were on different sides of the infamous Disgrace of Gijon.
A 1-0 win for West Germany over Austria in the last group match would take both teams through and eliminate Algeria on goal difference. The shambolic lack of intent on display after the Germans took the lead was a global embarrassment for the sport.
Will Scotland squeak through as one of the eight best third-placed teams? Give us your predictions below…
