Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship, which gets underway on Thursday in Memphis, Tenn.
Golf’s postseason is upon us. The top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings were determined at the conclusion of last week’s Wyndham Championship. Round 1 of the playoffs begins on Thursday at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tenn., for the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
When the dust settles in Memphis this Sunday, the top 50 players in the FedExCup standings will advance to Round 2 next week, which will then whittle down to the final 30 players in the standings who will advance to the grand finale at East Lake Golf Club the following week for the Tour Championship, with the FedEx Cup and $20 million on the line.
TPC Southwind has been a part of the PGA Tour rotation for nearly 40 years. In 2018, it became home to one of the WGC events. 2022 marked the first year it took on its current role of FedEx Cup playoff opener. A Ron Pritchard design with player consultation from Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green, the golf course is par 70 that stretches to nearly 7,300 yards. It is widely considered by Tour players as one of the best tests of golf they play all season. Challenging, fair, fast — right along with TPC Sawgrass, Southwind is at the very top of the TPC collection of courses we see on Tour.
The fairways are Zoyziagrass and everything else is Bermudagrass. The rough is not brutal but definitely penal and borders relatively narrow fairways. The greens are smaller targets and typically run at above Tour average speeds. Water comes into play on 11 of the 18 holes and catches as many errant shots as any course on Tour. With the water lurking and the narrow fairways, accuracy is more important than distance off the tee but neither stand out as a crucial factor. Total Driving may be a better way to pinpoint importance off the tee. Just look at some of the past winners: Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama, Daniel Berger, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Will Zalatoris, and Justin Thomas. There is both length and accuracy off the tee there — call it efficiency off the tee. They also share a common thread of elite ball striking and, in many cases, a world-class scrambling game around the greens.
To paint a broader picture, I am looking at a strong game off the tee, Greens in Regulation, Hole Proximity from 150-175 yards, Scrambling, and Par 4 Scoring on holes measuring between 450-500 yards.
Colonial Country Club, Waialae, and Pebble Beach stand out to me as correlated courses. Pebble mostly because of the smaller greens and the need for scrambling. Berger, Rose, and Johnson are all past winners there as well. Colonial (Charles Schwab Challenge) and Waialae (Sony Open) are two par-70 courses that require shot shape and proper position off the tee. Finally, I also looked at Sea Island (RSM Classic) and St. George’s Golf & Country Club, where they held the Canadian Open most recently in 2022. Matsuyama and Thomas have both won at Waialae and Rose and Berger have also each won at Colonial.
Sam Burns (24-1)
Burns was one of the first players that caught my eye when looking at the oddsboard for this week. He’s had a tremendous season and is especially familiar with these conditions being from the South. That is another thing to mention for this week: the weather. Temperatures are supposed to reach triple-digits and of course, there is that Memphis humidity. It is going to be very tough for sure, so I don’t mind having a Louisiana native in my camp this week. Burns has been as high as fifth here before, he’s won at Colonial, has two top 10 finishes at Pebble Beach, and was fourth at St. George’s in Canada in 2022. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks second in this field for SG: Approach, fourth in SG: Ball Striking, ninth in Scrambling, and is 12th on the 450-500 yard Par 4s.
Ludvig Aberg (28-1)
Going back to the Travelers Championship, this is the third or fourth time I have had the Big Swede on my card without having played him a single time prior to that this season. He has been very solid all year long really, but because he continues to miss out on a victory, his odds continue to be very attractive given how much talent the young man has. He’s been as high as ninth here at Southwind, won the RSM Classic a few years back, and has finished runner-up at Pebble Beach. Aberg is exceptional off the tee and with the irons and ranks 12th in this field with the flatstick on Bermudagrass. A good week Scrambling will be what he needs to win. Aberg is sixth on Tour in Total Driving.
Patrick Cantlay (35-1)
Pebble Beach and TPC Southwind have been a couple of cash cows for Cantlay, who has finished as high as runner-up, second, third, ninth, 11th and 12th a total of nine times over both properties. Total Driving and Scrambling have always been a couple of his strengths and he comes in this week off an eighth-place finish two weeks ago at the Rocket Classic where he ranked fourth in that field for SG: Approach. This is a player who won two playoff events and the FedEx Cup just five seasons ago.
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Ryan Gerard (68-1)
The expectation may have been a bit much for Gerard last week, playing in front of a home crowd, so to speak, in his home state of North Carolina. Like Burns, Gerard ought to be plenty familiar with the heat, humidity, and Bermudagrass greens this week in Memphis. Just earlier this season, he finished runner-up at the Sony Open and was 10th at Colonial. I believe last week’s missed cut has raised the number too high on Gerard this week. Anything better than 60-1 in a limited field looks like a good bargain to me. He is very accurate off the tee and ranks 24th on Tour in Total Driving. Over the last 24 rounds, Gerard is 14th in this field in Scrambling and sixth on the 450-500 yard Par 4s.
Two Long Bombs
J.T. Poston (150-1)
Poston hails from the South and lives in the Sea Island, Ga., area. Again, plenty familiar with heat, humidity, and a Bermudagrass putting surface. He’s finished top 20 multiple times at Waialae, Pebble Beach, and here at Southwind. He’s finished top 12 multiple times at Colonial and at the RSM Classic. Just two months ago, Poston won the Memorial and finished fourth at the U.S. Open. He sits right at No. 30 in the FedEx Cup standings, meaning he’ll need to play well in order to keep himself in position to qualify for the Tour Championship. Poston ranks 41st on Tour in Driving Accuracy. He is 15th in this field for SG: Putting (Bermudagrass) and 23rd in Scrambling.
Nico Echavarria (185-1)
A Columbian who resides in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., Echavarria is another player who ought to be used to the type of conditions this week in Memphis. He is one of the best putters in the world and excels on Bermudagrass, where he has finished runner-up at both the Sony Open and the RSM Classic. He’s been as high as eighth at Pebble Beach and sixth at Colonial. Earlier this season, he won the Cognizant Classic. Echavarria finished 12th last week at the Wyndham Championship and ranked fifth in that field for SG: Putting. Over the last 24-rounds, he ranks 24th in this field in Scrambling and is 23rd in Hole Proximity from 150-175 yards.
Final thoughts: I’ve seen the bright lights of Memphis and the Commodore Hotel. Make no bones about it, winning here this week will be no “Little Feat.”
