The Singapore Major invites are set to go out in just over a month, which means the scene is once again set to descend into a frenzy as teams race to accrue the all-important VRS points at events worldwide.
A plethora of smaller international LANs has filled the calendar, with some already in the books and others unveiling increasingly impressive lineups. Meanwhile, the tier-one circuit returns on Saturday with ESL Pro League S24, where a handful of big dogs will need a strong showing to avoid an unexpected holiday at the end of November.
The VRS race remains incredibly volatile and is set to shift daily, but we’ve rounded up some of the biggest storylines to keep an eye on as the next month of action unfolds with the help of HLTV’s new invite simulation. Note that the percentages displayed were accurate at the time of publication and are due to change regularly.
Ever-present NAVI in danger
Probably the biggest name in doubt for a Singapore invite is Natus Vincere, who have endured a terrible start to the fall season and currently reside at No. 19 in the European VRS, which puts them just outside the Major cut-off.
The storied Ukrainian organization holds the record as the only name to attend every Counter-Strike Major throughout history, an impressive record that might be in danger if Natus Vincere don’t get their ducks in a row during the next month.
The positive side of their qualification campaign is that they are set to play two tier-one events, PGL Bucharest Masters and ESL Pro League S24, where loads of points will be on offer.
A playoff appearance at either increases their chance of locking in their Singapore massively, but Aleksi “Aleksib” Virolainen’s troops have only won three games since the summer break, with a round of 16 appearance at the Esports World Cup their most notable result.
Playoffs at either EPL or Bucharest increase NAVI’s chances significantly
Their fate is therefore entirely in their hands, but an upturn in form is required to avoid a shock end to their streak of attending every Major.
FaZe sit on the cusp
Another big name in a slightly better position is FaZe, whose fate lies in the balance at the time of this article’s publication.
They are currently in 11th place in the European ranking, but with some of their better recent results expiring and no tier-one invites on the horizon, Russel “Twistzz” Van Dulken’s troops need to make the most of the three lower-ranked events they are set to attend in October.
FaZe are currently just inside the cutoff
They are currently set to attend Stake Ranked Episode 4, Roman Imperium Cup IX, and DraculaN Season 7 ahead of the cutoff, while they also have the chance for a similar Hail Mary attempt to earlier this year.
With their backs against the wall ahead of the IEM Cologne Major, FaZe signed up for HLC Belgrade PRO in a last-gasp attempt to qualify, but were left without a Major spot thanks to a second-place finish. The team’s captain, Finn “karrigan” Andersen, left shortly after, and FaZe will want to avoid something similar this time around.
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FaZe to attend HLC Belgrade PRO*
Deep playoff runs at the three aforementioned tournaments should be enough for FaZe to make it through barring any unexpected results elsewhere, but an early exit or a shock loss to a lower-ranked team could be enough to spell disaster.
FaZe are also far from consistent in their current form, as their last-place exit at FISSURE Playground 3 showed, but they should have the stature to get themselves out of another tough predicament.
David “frozen” Čerňanský and Twistzz are proven tier-one players, while Jason “JBOEN” Boe Nielsen has surprised many with his fast adaptation to AWPing at a higher level. Ryan “Neityu” Aubry and Jakub “jcobbb” Pietruszewski had standout maps and highlights in recent months, too.
As the famous cliché goes, FaZe’s biggest challenge when re-entering the VRS-LAN frenzy will therefore be to not lose to themselves.
BCG and WW join the fold in Asia
Over in the Asian region, the race is wide open thanks to some last-minute entries to the ranking. In recent weeks, both BC.Game and WW have announced roster changes that will switch them to an Asian majority, throwing the region’s existing teams into turmoil.
BC.Game’s signing of Tyson “asap” Paterson massively increases their chance of making Singapore, as they had around a 5% chance of making it through the European ranking, but now need just a couple of solid results at either ROG JOURNEY, Stake Pulse Beat 3, or DraculaN S7, to qualify.
For WW the change is much less of a slam-dunk, as they are currently battling 5star and FlyQuest for the last provisional spot, but a costly last-place exit at 1xBet FRAG Season 18 looks to have quashed their chances.
MongolZ no longer the undisputed No. 1
Another change to the status quo in Asia is that The MongolZ’s upheaval means Erdenedalai “maaRaa” Bayanbat’s troops are no longer guaranteed the number-one seed in their region.
The team has so far been unable to replace Azbayar “Senzu” Munkhbold and Ayush “mzinho” Batbold and has fallen further down the pecking order, with their recent additions, Zolbayar “tikuak” Chimedtseren and Dugarsuren “DarkMeister” Ireedui, lasting a total of three months on the roster.
The MongolZ received a direct Stage 3 invite for the last three Majors, and while the Asian region’s top invite has been demoted to Stage 2 with no team reaching the playoffs last time around, they aren’t guaranteed to secure it this time around.
The current Asia VRS invite projection, with WW and BC.Game yet to appear
TYLOO have a higher chance of being the top-ranked Asian squad at the cut-off when both teams’ schedules are considered, with the added caveat of The MongolZ not even having a complete roster to compete with.
The rankings also paint a bleak picture for Oceania, with THUNDER dOWNUNDER out of the race and FlyQuest in desperate need of some events filling their calendar.
After six straight Majors, paiN likely to miss out
In the Americas region, the biggest talking point comes from paiN’s demise. The Brazilian squad made the last six Majors, but looks increasingly likely to miss out on Singapore after a period of lackluster results.
After removing Guilherme “piriajr” Barbosa and Vinicius “vsm” Moreira from their roster, paiN opted to promote academy players Rickson “Rkzinho” Ribeiro Dias and Lucas “Tatu” Santana, but the move is yet to pay off for the organization.
While Rkzinho has shown some signs of promise, the team itself failed to capitalize on a possible honeymoon phase.
paiN need a miracle to qualify
paiN are thus well outside of the projected Singapore invites after missing a golden ticket by placing second at the recent FERJEE In House Season 2.
They also have no upcoming tournaments as per the HLTV database, meaning new chances to get points on the board will be hard to come by for paiN.
