After almost a decade of limited relevance, the Tigers made the playoffs the past two years and entered this season as the favorites to win the American League Central. On Opening Day, FanGraphs gave them a 60.2 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 4 percent chance of winning the World Series, the fourth-best World Series odds in the American League.
But with Tarik Skubal on the IL, the Tigers went 6-22 in the month of May, recalling a rival executive’s offseason assessment of the team: “That roster is not going to be good enough to make the playoffs, let alone go anywhere further than that, without Tarik Skubal.”
A good June and solid start to July momentarily put any thoughts of selling on hold, but the team is now six games out of first place in the AL Central and three games out of the wild-card race.
The rotation, even without Skubal for a long stretch, has been solid, but the Tigers’ bullpen has been underwhelming and the lineup has been roughly league average by wRC+. Riley Green, Dillon Dingler and rookie Kevin McGonigle were deserving All-Stars, but much of the lineup has been below-average or even below replacement level.
Now that Skubal is gone, the Tigers could continue to sell — Casey Mize and Gleyber Torres are heading for free agency, Kenley Jansen has a club option for next year — but they could also try to claw back into the playoff race with River Ryan (acquired in the Skubal trade) and Jackson Jobe (currently on a rehab assignment) as potential rotation boosts down the stretch. Neither is likely to really replace Skubal, but the AL is a mess and the AL Central is hardly the sport’s most demanding division.
