The Baltimore Ravens had hope before kickoff last Sunday. By the time they kick off on Thursday, most of that hope has vanished with two months left in the season.
The Ravens suffered not only one but two quarterback injuries on Sunday. Lamar Jackson dislocated his right thumb on his first play back from an ankle injury, then Tyler Huntley injured his toe. Both players are on injured reserve.
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Before last Sunday, you would have had watched a lot of preseason football to know Joe Fagnano was the Ravens’ third-string quarterback. The undrafted rookie is now elevated to QB1 for its game on Thursday night against a very good Jacksonville Jaguars team. There is help on the way next week, as the Ravens reportedly were finalizing a deal for Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett, but Fagnano will get at least one game.
Fagnano started his college career as a walk-on at Maine. He went to UConn after that and had an impressive 28-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio for the Huskies. He still went undrafted and signed for the Ravens with no money guaranteed. In his first NFL action last week, he completed 10-of-21 passes for 91 yards. He will benefit from getting starter’s reps in practice, even though it’s a short week. It’s still a very tough assignment.
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Fagnano made his NFL debut last week against Buffalo. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)
(AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)
The Jaguars are 5-2 and lead the NFL with a +85 point differential. They’re up to No. 2 in DVOA behind the 49ers and are the only team that ranks in the top five of offense, defense and special teams in DVOA. Three of their five wins have come by 24 or more points. It looks like they’ll run away with the AFC South.
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The Ravens are just trying to stay alive in case Jackson can make a return sometime late in the season. They have to wait one more week for Brissett to be the bridge quarterback to that. This week, they’re relying on an undrafted rookie to help pull off an improbable win.
Who needs it more?
It’s reasonable to say the Ravens. If they win they’ll be 5-4 with Jacoby Brissett coming on board. The season wouldn’t technically be over at that point. However, Baltimore’s chances of staying afloat over the second half of the season and also have Lamar Jackson return are slim. When you lose a two-time MVP quarterback to injured reserve, there’s not much you can do about it. The Jaguars are cruising along at 5-2 and look like a legitimate Super Bowl contender. They might not be the more desperate team but they’re the one with a bright future this season. They need it more just because a loss to a reeling team with an undrafted rookie quarterback would ruin the idea that the Jaguars can win a championship.
Key player: Ravens RB Derrick Henry
If the Ravens can pull off an upset, it will be because the defense plays great and the offense carries its quarterback. That formula puts a lot of pressure on Henry. It won’t be easy against a Jaguars team that will likely come in not respecting the Ravens’ passing game with a rookie making his first start. The Jaguars also allow the fewest rushing yards and rushing yards per carry in the NFL. That did come with defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton having a good season, and he suffered a season-ending quad injury last week. Henry had a good start to the season but has had some quiet games lately with the Ravens suffering through bad quarterback play. He has 156 yards on 45 carries (3.5-yard average) over the last three weeks, and Baltimore hasn’t scored more than 13 points in any of those games. But they need Henry to have a dominant performance Thursday, and that won’t be easy against a good Jaguars defense.
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Betting market watch
The Jaguars travel to Baltimore to take on the M.A.S.H. unit that is the Ravens’ remaining roster on Thursday night. Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley? Both out on IR. Third-stringer Joe Fagnano will start, but is dealing with an ankle injury. Baltimore is reportedly trading for Jacoby Brissett, but he won’t be playing this week. To put a little context into the state of both teams, this line was Ravens -4.5 this offseason, it re-opened Ravens +8 on Sunday and got as high as +10. The Jaguars are only 4-3 against the spread this season, but they’re coming off a 42-7 rout of an undermanned Colts team. Baltimore has talent on both sides of the ball, but this is a big ask for Fagnano — on a short week and with an injury no less. There are some Jacksonville -9.5s out there in the market. I’d jump on one of those or put Jacksonville in a 7-point tease with the 49ers -9.5 to get both under a field goal. — Ben Fawkes
Check out more of Ben’s work at the Yahoo Sports betting hub.
Jacksonville at Baltimore looked like a signature game when the schedule was released, but all bets are off with Lamar Jackson unavailable. Here are three fantasy angles to track as you watch the game.
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1. Can Zay Flowers survive? Flowers has shown the ability to produce with backups before — he was just fine with Tyler Huntley last year. But with Jackson and Huntley both unavailable and Jacoby Brissett a week away, the Ravens have to make do with undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano in this spot. Flowers did not have a catch in the loss to Buffalo.
2. What does the Jacksonville pass distribution look like? Although Trevor Lawrence attempted just 14 passes last week, he found a way to target eight different players. Parker Washington is the unquestioned No. 1 receiver in the Jacksonville huddle, but we’d like to see him draw a larger market share.
3. Will Derrick Henry find running lanes? Henry is finally showing some attrition near the end of his Hall of Fame career, sliding down to 4.0 YPC. The loss of Jackson obviously doesn’t help, and he’ll be challenged by a Jaguars’ defense that’s No. 1 in run defense DVOA. The Ravens would like to give Henry 20 or more touches, attempt to shorten the game. — Scott Pianowski
Check out more of Scott’s work at the Yahoo Sports fantasy hub.
