One road win and a Wembanyama eruption have flipped the narrative. The take making the rounds before Game 4 is that momentum now belongs to the Spurs and a series the Knicks led 2-0 is suddenly San Antonio’s to steal. The math says pump the brakes.
Wembanyama is fueling it himself. On Good Morning America the morning of Game 4, he said the Spurs are “as fired up as it gets right now” after his 32-point Game 3, and the “San Antonio has the edge now” framing has followed.
Why the take has real legs
The case isn’t empty. Wembanyama looked like the best player on the floor for the first time in the series, San Antonio snapped New York’s 13-game playoff winning streak, and the Spurs proved they can win the kind of physical, half-court game the Knicks prefer.
A young team that finally gets a Finals win on the road often unlocks a belief it was missing, and Wembanyama playing with this much control changes every defensive decision New York makes.
Why it’s getting ahead of itself
The series is still 2-1 for the Knicks, with Game 4 and a potential Game 6 at Madison Square Garden. New York shot poorly in Game 3 and still lost by only four, which suggests the gap is thinner than the “momentum shift” talk implies.
The Knicks are 2.5-point favorites at home for a reason, and a team that just needs to hold serve once in two home games is in control regardless of vibes. Momentum in a playoff series is mostly a story we tell about whoever won last.
The verdict
San Antonio earned belief, but belief and control are different things. If the Spurs win Game 4 and even the series, the momentum take becomes real and the pressure flips entirely onto New York. If the Knicks respond at home and go up 3-1, Game 3 looks like a blip the favorite absorbed. The take is premature until the Spurs prove it can happen twice, which is the whole point of tonight.
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