Stat Check: Aurora’s sensible transfers still come with huge risk

When FURIA went international, the outcry from parts of the Brazilian fanbase was to be expected. In an increasingly global scene, fans want a connection to the teams they support. But they also want success; when Danil “⁠molodoy⁠” Golubenko turned out to be a star, and Mareks “⁠YEKINDAR⁠” Gaļinskis’s macro understanding was integrated, criticism ebbed away. Trophies are a cure to betrayal.

Which brings us to Aurora. Turkey waited a long time for a team this good, and breaking up a structure that made nine Big Event playoffs over the last twelve months is always a risk, whoever you are bringing in.

The signal Aurora are sending is that they believe a ceiling was reached within their country. No in-game leader could improve on some of Engin “⁠MAJ3R⁠” Küpeli’s tactical weaknesses. To find an anchor, they first turned to Samet “⁠jottAAA⁠” Köklü, who left after being unhappy with some elements of his role, and then plucked Caner “⁠soulfly⁠” Kesici out of star positions in Fire Flux.

Both did well considering their unfamiliarity in those roles, but it does illustrate the point. Scouting for national teams like Aurora is inherently a game of pros and cons. A role player at a second-tier Turkish team might be a more natural anchor, but can they compete mechanically? In an international market, a player like Jimi “⁠Jimpphat⁠” Salo offers both.

Aurora have faced criticism from home even before switching to an international lineup

Sometimes, the lack of market options is a strength: You can’t just trigger a roster change every time it gets tough, synergy improves, and a unique style can be harder to deal with than the homogenized international meta.

But if the ambition is to win Big Event titles — their only trophy so far was in PGL’s studio at Masters Bucharest — then the need to improve both firepower and tactical depth was always going to be too hard to resist for an impatient and foreign upper management.

Watch our breakdown of Aurora’s moves with Michael “⁠YouM3⁠” Cassidy and Roope “RobuJohnson” Leppänen here.

Of course, there are plenty of downsides, not least the reaction from their passionate and nationalistic fanbase. The squad got plenty of stick when they left Eternal Fire to join Aurora last year, and MAJ3R had to take to X to respond to fans accusing them of selling out. The overriding sentiment in the comments of Aurora’s announcement of Ashley “⁠ash⁠” Battye, their confirmation of an international switch, is scepticism. And that’s us putting it politely.

The pressure on the team will be immense from day one. Staying at the same level under an international flag is a failure. Like for FURIA, the only way to cure the betrayal is with trophies. But if you get Ismailcan “⁠XANTARES⁠” Dörtkardeş a Big Event trophy, it’s hard to imagine fans turning their noses up; it’s not the same as if five Turks won the same title, but it’s better than not getting a title at all.

ash at BLAST.tv Major Paris

So what are the chances of that success actually happening? The moves, on paper, are intelligent ones.

ash is the least proven of the three, and his reputation for scouting and improving young talent is less relevant in a project like this, but he is a good man manager, a hard worker, and deserves a step up to a stable team after his GamerLegion debacle.

Coaches are hard to judge from the outside, but making a Major final with the world number 31, rebuilding a solid lineup afterwards having lost his two best players, and making the team a constant in the top 20 despite an incredibly difficult working environment are tangible achievements for ash. Is it really more of a risk than choosing a random ex-player and hoping that they can do the job?

The players, too, make sense. First of all, choosing to retain Özgür “⁠woxic⁠” Eker is smart in a difficult AWPer market once a pursuit for molodoy was shut down.

Damjan “⁠kyxsan⁠” Stoilkovski did not bring prestigious titles to Falcons, but is a top in-game leader who would not have been benched for many leaders except Finn “⁠karrigan⁠” Andersen. Jimpphat is still just 19, but has already made the Top 20 whilst playing low-resource anchor-lurker roles.

The young Finn is also a great profile of rifler to slide in next to Ali “⁠Wicadia⁠” Haydar Yalçın and XANTARES. While Lotan “⁠Spinx⁠” Giladi didn’t actually take many of Jimpphat’s positions, and was more aggressive than he received credit for, it’s clear that Jimi is more comfortable as a team’s primary closer. Alongside the two Turks, he will provide a counter-balance to their aggression and know that he is to be set up for the late round.

Having kyxsan as captain also helps, given that XANTARES and Wicadia are most effective in rotator positions. Signing a skipper like Dan “⁠apEX⁠” Madesclaire or Aulon “⁠Krabeni⁠” Fazlija, who want to control the CT side from star spots, would not have made any sense, as Kamil “⁠siuhy⁠” Szkaradek found out in Liquid.

In terms of actual spots, the few clashes that do exist are easy to sort. kyxsan can shuffle to Long on Dust2, Floor on Nuke, and Jimpphat has the skillset to be a fantastic A Anchor on Anubis, long an Aurora favorite, which frees up Wicadia to be more active in E-Box.

ash will be upset at the removal of old GamerLegion stronghold Overpass, but XANTARES and Space Soldiers made their name on Cache, so expect it to be a staple of the new Aurora lineup. We can see Wicadia charging down Mid with XANTARES at Highway on CT side already.

Like on CT, any clashes on T are easy to sort. Wicadia has scope to be the fourth map control man, in spots like Boiler on Inferno or a new one like Silo on Nuke, with Jimpphat as the primary lurker on every map.

The other clash, kyxsan and XANTARES both playing Mid on Anubis, is also simple to fix with kyxsan moving to Canals. The quintet is well-balanced and more time will be spent on macro rather than players learning a host of new positions.

This is a team that will have defined roles and very few position clashes; the success or failure of the project will be down to factors beyond where a player starts the round.

That is not to underplay the differences in style between Jimpphat and soulfly or kyxsan and MAJ3R.

Even in the same positions, players can play very differently. Take this chart, plotting Entrying (a composite rating based mostly on traded deaths) against Trading (the same for trade kills), and you can see that both international signings offer very different profiles.

In Falcons, kyxsan was more of an entry fragger than the utility-focused MAJ3R, and 37% of his opening deaths on T side were traded. But a lot of that is down to the way Falcons was built, with kyxsan needing to prioritize his star rifles. In HEROIC, kyxsan’s figure in that stat was 28%, and at Apeks it was 27%, so it would not be a surprise for him to move away from the selfless bomb-site entry role he had next to Maksim “⁠kyousuke⁠” Lukin and Nikola “⁠NiKo⁠” Kovač and go further towards MAJ3R on this chart.

But then again, maybe not. soulfly was a dedicated bombsite entry in Aurora, using his experience as a star opener to be the spear tip on executes. Jimpphat is a modern, flexible, player, but should not slot in 1:1 in that role. Therefore, having kyxsan entry ahead of XANTARES is the sensible solution, with Jimpphat able to be in his usual passive role.

Even entrying as much as he did in Falcons, kyxsan’s utility figures were broadly similar to MAJ3R. Both throw over 0.90 flashes per round, and while 0.11 flash assists per round for MAJ3R is better than the 0.08 for kyxsan, they’re similar in terms of time opponents spend blind (2.47s vs 2.49s). So it’s only a slight win for MAJ3R in this category, with kyxsan a mechanical upgrade and able to bring plenty of tactical experience from his own mind but also from Jakub “⁠kuben⁠” Gurczyński, Eetu “⁠sAw⁠” Saha, and Danny “⁠zonic⁠” Sørensen — even if his CT performances were concerning at times this year.

It will be interesting to see how XANTARES will perform in this new era. He played in an English-speaking team before with BIG, but there’s no doubt it will be a challenge in a team where his voice needs to be heard.

Now 30 years of age and battling a long-term injury, there are signs that XANTARES is beginning to slow down. After a 1.15 rating in CS2 up to the end of 2025, he sits on a 1.07 so far this year, a decline that needs to be arrested if Aurora are to match their past heights, let alone eclipse them. Hopefully, with some rest, his hand will heal, and he’ll be back to his best, but that is easier said than done — and his difference in T and CT rating suggests more is going on.

It’s also getting to the point where it’s fair to lose hope that he will ever overcome his struggles in big matches. XANTARES is on a 0.94 rating in playoffs this year, compared to 1.13 in groups. In CS2 overall, it goes from 1.06 in playoffs to 1.17 in groups. At 30, this is a trend that is hard to reverse.

Wicadia, meanwhile, is having a fantastic year. In XANTARES’ downturn, he has become Aurora’s best player with a 0.04 rating gap to his idol at MVP events. He’s the only Aurora player who exceeds his target rating (the average rating of a player in their CT and T positions) on both offence and defence.

It’s not just stats, either: He’s on track to break into the Top 20 with three EVPs this year already, including one from the Cologne Major. The issue is that, unlike XANTARES and woxic, he has never played in an international team before. He’s given interviews and his English is serviceable, but it is not ideal timing for a player who has flourished under MAJ3R’s system.

How woxic will perform is also a question. With rumors swirling around molodoy’s future after Gabriel “⁠FalleN⁠” Toledo’s retirement at the end of 2026, he may have only been granted a stay of execution this summer. The veteran AWPer is a reliable one, capable of highlights, but with XANTARES’ age, you can see why management would want to add a superstar sniper — one whom ash wanted in GamerLegion in 2025 — alongside Wicadia to buff the team’s firepower.

molodoy continues to be linked to Aurora

It’s a mouthwatering prospect on paper with two young superstars, XANTARES as an ageing but effective X-factor, and Jimpphat and kyxsan acting as the keystones. Even without molodoy, it’s an exciting team off the bat with reliable players in every role.

Aurora have nailed the first two steps of an international transition: They’ve made on-paper upgrades in all three positions, and done so while maintaining an excellent balance in both positions and profiles between the four rifles. But we all know CS2 isn’t played on paper.

The third step is the crucial one: Adding the intangibles and big game nous required to challenge a Vitality, Spirit, or Falcons. FURIA did so for a few events but could not sustain it at Budapest or in 2026, a worrying sign for an Aurora team that clearly sees that as a blueprint.

With an upset fanbase and very strong teams above them in the ranking, Aurora have a tall task ahead of them. They could have been happy as Turkey’s top team, in the playoffs consistently and flying the flag, in the same way The MongolZ have settled into a routine around the bottom of the top ten.

But ambition is why they left Eternal Fire in the first place. When you join an organization like Aurora with cash to spend, it should not be a surprise when management chooses to do exactly that.

Aurora want to break that glass ceiling, risking the ire of their fans and the stability of their squad to do so. Let’s see if it’s worth it.