Benoit Saint Denis remains a narrow favorite over Paddy Pimblett heading into their UFC 329 lightweight co-main event on July 11, though the betting market has moved closer to a pick’em since the matchup first opened. Early numbers placed Saint Denis around -155, with Pimblett at +130, but late fight-week pricing has trimmed the Frenchman’s edge.
Benoit Saint Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett Fight Week Odds
The shift suggests increased support for Pimblett, who enters this three-round contest after a January loss to Justin Gaethje in a five-round battle for the interim lightweight title at UFC 324. Saint Denis, meanwhile, has been installed as the favorite based on his finishing history and aggressive style, having recorded finishes in all 17 of his professional wins.
Saint Denis opened as a more solid favorite, with -155 odds translating to an implied win probability of about 60 percent. Pimblett’s +130 return implied roughly a 40 percent chance with That gap has narrowed during fight week. Saint Denis is still listed on the favored side, but by a slimmer margin, indicating that the market is giving Pimblett more credit than it did when the bout was announced.
Saint Denis’ career profile naturally points bettors toward a stoppage. He owns a 17-3 professional record and every one of his victories has come inside the distance, a statistic that separates him from most fighters near the top of the lightweight division.
A Saint Denis stoppage is the logical method lean for those backing the favorite. His decision route is harder to support on paper because he has not built his record through scorecards, though a cautious approach after recent career setbacks could change the pace of the fight.
Pimblett‘s clearest path is to survive the early push, make Saint Denis work through long exchanges and use his own grappling to create scrambles. A Pimblett submission or late stoppage would fit the underdog case better than a clean, one-sided decision.
Saint Denis carries the statistical finishing case and remains the market choice. Pimblett carries the late betting support, name recognition and the chance to make a major rebound after falling short against Gaethje. The result could have a direct effect on who moves into the next group of contenders at 155 pounds.
