UFC Macau predictions | MMA Fighting

Song Yadong, the lights will be bright on Saturday night (well, morning for us in North America).

The stage is set for Song to impress as he headlines in his native China opposite Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC Macau. Song has seen mixed results against elite competition at 135 pounds, coming off of a loss to Sean O’Malley and a win over Henry Cejudo that was marred by a nasty eyepoke. Just 28 years old, Song still has time to prove he’s championship quality, but as the saying goes, it gets late early in the rapidly moving bantamweight division.

Figueiredo, the two-time flyweight champion, faces a different kind of pressure. He’s 10 years older than Song and he’s lost three of his past four fights. The contender window appears to have closed on Figueiredo, but he can resuscitate his title hopes with an upset of Song on Saturday.

Also on the main card, Zhang Mingyang looks to bounce back from his first UFC loss when he takes on light heavyweight veteran Alonzo Menifield, heavyweights Sergei Pavlovich and Tallison Teixeira face off, and Kai Asakura returns to the bantamweight division to fight Cameron Smotherman.

Where: Galaxy Arena in Macau, China

When: Saturday, May 30. The seven-fight early preliminary card begins at 4 a.m. ET, followed by a six-fight main card at 7 a.m. ET. The entire event streams live on Paramount+.

(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)

Song Yadong (7) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (9)

Mr. Figueiredo, I’m sorry to say it, but the upper echelon of the bantamweight division might not be for you.

There’s no shame in losing fights to Petr Yan and Cory Sandhagen (Song Yadong can relate), or Umar Nurmagomedov for that matter. But I think we have a pretty clear ceiling for Deiveson Figueiredo at 135 pounds. He still has some pop, is still a fantastic all-around fighter, but he’s outsized, outgunned, and in Song’s case, out-youthed in this weight class.

Can Figgy utilize his grappling and trip and tackle his way to victory? It’s possible. Song has excellent takedown defense, so if Figueiredo is going to go the wrestling route, he’ll have to be willing to take some damage to get inside and make this fight dirty. At range, Song will batter him.

This is a showcase booking for Song and I expect him to take full advantage of the opportunity, stuffing Figueiredo’s takedown attempts and wearing him down en route to a knockout in the championship rounds.

Zhang Mingyang vs. Alonzo Menifield

Did someone say showcase booking?

Zhang Mingyang fell short in Shanghai this past August, losing by second-round knockout to the always tricky Johnny Walker. A win would have propelled Zhang to a top 10 ranking most likely; instead, he finds himself with a rebound matchup against Alonzo Menifield. If Zhang is prove he’s a future player in this division, he has to impress here.

Menifield is no slouch, but like Figueiredo, he’s dealing with a 10-year age gap and against a slugger like Zhang, you can’t afford to be a step behind once the fists and feet start flying. He’s proven highly susceptible to KOs, so they picked the right man if they were looking to get Zhang a win in his home country.

“Mountain Tiger” gets back on track with a big knockout in Round 1.

Sergei Pavlovich (5) vs. Tallison Teixeira

I’m worried we could have a heavyweight stinker on our hands.

Don’t get me wrong, Sergei Pavlovich and Tallison Texeira have plenty of knockout power and they put it to good use as they rose up the ranks in the UFC stringing together numerous fast finishes. Understandably, they’ve had to tweak their approaches as they’ve faced better competition, which has significantly reduced their ability to generate highlights. On paper, this one should be over in a flash; in practice, it could be a drag if neither man asserts themselves early.

Pavlovich is a hitter of the highest order, but he can get frustrated when dealing with more technical opponents. I’m curious how he deals with the occasionally unorthodox Teixeira, who will almost certainly mix in some takedowns as well. The temptation will be there to slug it out and go toe-to-toe with Texeira, especially if Pavlovich is aiming to make a statement that he’s worthy of a title shot in the near future.

For the fun of it, I’m picking Teixeira, because I’d like to see fresh blood in the contender picture and I think we’re yet to see the best from the 26-year-old big man. Let’s see if he can level up in real time as he takes a big step up in competition.

Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman

Freed of a tough flyweight cut, I’m predicting Kai Asakura shines.

Simply put, Asakura was at his best when he was dicing fools up at bantamweight in the RIZIN ring, and while he’s probably too stuck in that tweener range between 125 and 135 to be a true contender, that doesn’t mean UFC fans can’t get a lot of entertainment out of the exciting striker before it’s said and done.

Cameron Smotherman was undoubtedly thrilled to see Asakura’s name floated his way as he’s guaranteed to have a willing standup partner. He might be less excited when he actually has to defend against Asakura’s aggressive style. Smotherman uses his reach well and only needs a small window to land a fight-changing counter, but Asakura won’t give him much room to operate.

Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris

Respectfully, after Jake Matthews lost his originally scheduled opponent Muslim Salikhov, they should have moved this to the prelims and put Angela Hill vs. Xiong Jing Nan on the main card. But I digress.

Carlston Harris is a solid replacement and this will be a classy welterweight fight between two veterans who know what they’re doing in the standup and on the ground. Baseline competency is underrated, I always say. Harris hits harder, but isn’t the most accurate puncher, so Matthews will focus on movement and volume to keep Harris at bay.

If Harris starts to find success with his strikes, Matthews will take this to the ground, where he’ll have to be wary of Harris’ array of chokes. Matthews’ savvy and athleticism should prevail as he works for ground-and-pound maybe even threatens with his own submissions.

Alex Perez (13) vs. Sumudaerji

This might be Sumudaerji’s last chance to claim a ranking.

The Chinese flyweight has tantalizing physical gifts, almost Stefan Struve-esque in his potential to mix size and skill. He has a reach advantage over almost everyone in the division and when he can utilize it properly, he looks like a world beater. And yet he hasn’t actually beaten anyone close to being considered a top-tier flyweight. It’s frustrating.

Perez, on the other hand, has maximized his abilities to the fullest. Perhaps pushing himself to the highest level is why his career has been so riddled with injury, but when he hangs up the gloves someday, I think most will agree he did everything he could short of winning a UFC title. He’s defeated some solid names with his classic mixture of wrestling and fast hands.

My gut tells me he still has enough left in the tank to beat Sumudaerji, even though the conditions are optimal for “The Tibetan Eagle” to soar. I’m just struggling to see how he stays off of his back against the scrappy Perez, who either grind this one out or stops Sumudaerji via submission.

Yi Sak Lee def. Luis Felipe Dias

Jose Souza def. Ding Meng

Cody Haddon def. Aoriqileng

Rei Tsuruya def. Luis Gurule

Angela Hill (15) def. Xiong Jing Nan

Rodrigo Vera def. Zhu Kangjie

Loma Lookboonmee def. Jaqueline Amorim