UFC Vegas 118, The Morning After: The strange, sudden downfall of Belal Muhammad

Just 14 months ago, Belal Muhammad was standing tall as UFC’s undisputed Welterweight champion.

Not only was Muhammad the reigning kingpin, but he had thoroughly silenced all doubters. From April 2019 to April 2025, “The Bully” never tasted defeat in 11 trips to the Octagon. The only blemish in that span was his eye poke “No Contest” opposite Leon Edwards, whom Muhammad defeated in definitive fashion at UFC 304 to end their rivalry and capture gold back in July 2024.

Throughout that win streak, Muhammad proved himself an unusually apt strategist. He’s never been an overwhelming physical talent, but Muhammad combined a well-rounded mix of skills with grit, cardio and the ability to apply his skills intelligently.

Let’s take a quick look back at the variety of strategies and styles Muhammad utilized on his run to gold:

In every case, Muhammad made the right call. If he tried to strike with “Wonderboy,” brawl with Luque, or wrestle Brady, he probably loses those contests. Instead, Muhammad exposed or merely capitalized upon his opponent’s weaknesses, maximizing his own combat abilities in the process. After his upset win over Luque in 2022, I wrote the following: “Muhammad’s success as an elite contender is based entirely on his ability to game plan and adjust his own strategy. From fight-to-fight, Muhammad very purposefully acts as a chameleon, changing himself however is necessary to survive.“

What happened to that chameleon?

In the last 13 months, Muhammad has competed three times. In his title loss to Jack Della Maddalena, Muhammad faced considerable criticism for failing to establish the wrestling early in the fight, only turning to his takedowns late in the bout when his “Canelo Hands” had failed him. In Muhammad’s would-be rebound against Ian Machado-Garry, he tried to pressure and wrestle — the correct approach — but never wound up getting Garry to the floor in a competitive fight.

Last night at UFC Vegas 118 against Gabriel Bonfim, there was a clear strategy to employ. As in the Edwards and Brady bouts, Muhammad had to embrace his “Bully” role. We have seen Bonfim fatigue in the past, particularly when forced to wrestle for an extended period of time. He crumbled in round two versus Nicholas Dalby three years ago (watch highlights), and even in his win over “Wonderboy,” one round of the wrestling grind slowed his feet significantly.

Per the official stats, Muhammad didn’t even attempt a takedown until round three. Worse still, he willingly fought at distance from the early going, trying to shift stances and directions like he once did versus Luque. It was the worst possible gameplan, one that left him stranded at distance against Bonfim’s superior jab and punishing kicks.

As Muhammad absorbed more damage, he tried to stand his ground more often and shot a couple takedowns. By this point, of course, he was bloodied and limping a bit. Naturally, his takedowns were easily defended. Because Bonfim was entirely able to set his own pace, he never fatigued in any meaningful way.

At age 37, Muhammad has now lost three straight fights, and this one may cost him his Top 10 rankings. It’s a confirmed decline, a definite downfall. Yet, it’s an unusual one in that Muhammad has seemingly handicapped himself in two of his three defeats with his own strategic choices.

In reality, I would hazard a guess that there’s a physical explanation, some kind of back or knee injury that has limited Muhammad’s ability to wrestle. His shots have lost a level of explosiveness compared to the Edwards win, and explosiveness is not a quality Muhammad has in excess. We often see aging wrestlers fall in love with their hands for the simple reason that throwing a punch is much easier on a worn-down body than squatting down and driving forward into a full commitment double leg takedown.

Perhaps Muhammad, a proven smart cookie, is aware that he no longer has the wrestling to drag elite Welterweights to the floor. Without that takedown threat, he doesn’t have the offensive boxing or power to walk down a bigger and more dangerous young fighter like Bonfim, so he instead tried to use his movement to walk Bonfim into a counter left hook or sneaky high kick.

Muhammad’s chameleon status was built upon his skills. The more limited a fighters’ technical abilities, the fewer strategies they can employ. If Muhammad’s offensive wrestling really has declined due to physical wear-and-tear, he’s suddenly a man with relatively few options, forced to rely more on grit than savvy.

That’s not an easy place to be … and it explains the trio of losses.