Welcome to The Athletic’s daily World Cup Predictions.
This article gives you the lowdown on all today’s games, but with the bonus of some friendly competition…
Throughout the tournament, we will have two of The Athletic writers (either Andy Jones or Elias Burke — with help from our experts from each of the 48 competing countries) pitting our soccer knowledge against a different subscriber each day and ‘Algo’, the shiny new algorithm from The Athletic, which is making its computerised debut during the 2026 World Cup.
Oh, and also a dog called Stanley and a six-year-old boy named Wilfred (who some of you may remember from last season’s Premier League predictions).
Our guest subscriber today is Susu from Canada, who supports Ghana and Milan. Good luck!
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What happened on Matchday 9?
The USMNT sealed their place in the knockout stages with a convincing 2-0 victory over Australia — and all without star man, Christian Pulisic.
Mauricio Pochettino, who changed to a 3-5-2 without Pulisic, saw his side benefit from an early own goal for the second successive game, this time when Cameron Burgess turned home Folarin Balogun’s low cross. They took control of the game, doubling their lead just before half-time through Alex Freeman.
Australia were without their own star man from their opening game as Nestory Irankunda was only named on the bench as coach Tony Popovic freshened up his line-up. The 20-year-old came on at half-time and added a much-needed attacking impetus, but the damage had already been done.
Freeman celebrates scoring his team’s second goal (Photo: Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
It was a good start to the day for The Athletic experts, Algo and subscriber Jayden, who all picked the United States to keep their 100 per cent record intact.
Wilfred joined the party in the second game as he, along with the rest of us, selected Morocco to beat Scotland, which they did with a 1-0 victory. The same couldn’t be said for Stanley, who had predicted an Australia win and then a draw. At this point, we might have to start asking questions about what football education he’d been given by his owner before the tournament began.
If you thought Morocco had made an electric start against Brazil, it was even better against Scotland as they took the lead after 70 seconds. Ismael Saibari arrowed a half-volley into the top corner after being released in behind, and it proved to be the winning goal.
Saibari strikes against Scotland (Photo: Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
Morocco failed to make more of their dominance in the first half and Scotland’s threat increased as the second half wore on. An early second-period penalty shout on John McGinn was turned down, before a stronger appeal, when Scott McTominay went down in the box, was also waved away in the final 10 minutes.
In the other Group C game, Brazil had questions to answer after an underwhelming performance against Morocco. On paper, playing Haiti was an ideal game to respond to those doubts, and it proved to be the case as they won 3-0.
Coach Carlo Ancelotti continued to trust in experience, as Vinicius Jr., who turns 26 next month, was the youngest player selected in the starting XI. His decision to bring Matheus Cunha into the team in place of Igor Thiago paid off as he scored Brazil’s first two goals. Vinicius added a third just before halftime.
Haiti struggled to lay a glove on their opponents — they didn’t manage a shot in the first half. They improved in the second half but Brazil were able to manage the game relatively comfortably. It was a full house for the predictors as everyone selected a win for the heavy favourites.
The final game of the night saw Paraguay boost their qualification chances with a 1-0 win over Turkey. So much for the European side being a ‘dark horse’ in the tournament.
After a surprise defeat against Australia, Turkey were stunned again when Matias Galarza’s long-range effort put Paraguay ahead after two minutes.
Just when we thought we’d already seen it all, Paraguay’s Miguel Almiron said ‘hold my beer’ as he was sent off for covering his mouth while communicating just before half-time. Advantage Turkey? Not quite, as Paraguay defended resolutely in the second half to secure the three points.
As for Turkey, they have had 62 shots in their two group games, getting only 12 on target and scoring zero goals. They probably should have realised it wasn’t their night when Mert Muldur saw his first-half header hit the post and the bar before staying out.
After a poor start to the matchday, Stanley showed there is life in the old dog yet by being the only one to correctly predict a Paraguay victory.
Algo (20 points) continues to lead at the top of the table after three correct predictions. The Athletic experts (18) and Jayden (17) did too, keeping the pressure on with Wilfred (16) not far behind either.
How do the predictions work?
It’s pretty simple: we will give you some background on each game, players to watch and facts on the two teams. Then we will predict the outcome of the match: either a WIN for one of the two countries, or a DRAW.
We will maintain a leaderboard of how everyone gets on with their predictions (ranked by the percentage they get correct) but we’ll also keep a record of “streaks” — the number of predictions everyone gets right in a row. These streaks also form a crucial part of The Athletic’s interactive Soccer Pick’Em feature, allowing you to make your own picks every round as well.
So come along and get involved, and check back each day to see how we are getting on in the leaderboard, and probably more importantly, whether you, the subscribers, or Stanley or Wilfred are beating us.
Or, worst of all, whether Algo can prove that data and statistics know all when it comes to predicting.
Good luck, and enjoy!
Why not try The Athletic’s World Cup Tracker, where you can find a forecast projecting the likelihood that each team will progress through each stage of the tournament, along with a bracket projecting the most likely round of 32 matchups, current standings, and a bunch of other neat forecasts and scenarios.
Predictions for Matchday 10
Netherlands vs Sweden, Group F, kick-off 1pm ET, 6pm BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.) BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 3/5. It is difficult to know exactly what level Sweden are at, after their dominant opening victory over a disappointing Tunisia. If their front two of Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres can keep firing as they did in that 5-1 win, the Netherlands will need to work hard today in Houston, Texas, to secure the three points.
Watch Rating: 4/5. Sweden are in the driving seat in this group and can seal qualification for the knockout phase with another win, while the Dutch will want to avoid putting any pressure on their final game against Tunisia.
The Athletic Expert Says: “Conceding an 88th-minute equaliser to Japan was a blow to the Netherlands.
“Ronald Koeman’s side weren’t quite at their best in that opener in Dallas as control and dominance shifted back and forth between the two sides, but there were positives for the Dutch to build on. They scored twice, although there remain question marks around the output of their forwards, and the in-game tactical tweaks from head coach Koeman helped break down a strong Japanese defence.
“Sweden’s 5-1 defeat of Tunisia was one of the more surprising scorelines of the World Cup’s first round of group matches. They began to answer some of the concerns surrounding them heading into the tournament, after they qualified in far from convincing fashion. The Netherlands provide a step up in opposition, which should give us a clearer indication of how much the Swedes have improved under Graham Potter since his appointment last October.
Alexander Isak had a goal and two assists in Sweden’s 5-1 win against Tunisia (David Ramos/Getty Images)
“If you have an in-form duo of Isak and Gyokeres and can provide them with appropriate service, then Sweden will always have a chance. Those two couldn’t have started the tournament any better, and while they are now team-mates at Liverpool, former Newcastle United striker Isak will reignite a personal battle with Van Dijk, which had been must-watch TV in recent Premier League seasons.”
The Athletic Experts: NETHERLANDS WIN
Guest subscriber Susu: NETHERLANDS WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: NETHERLANDS WIN
Stanley the dog: NETHERLANDS WIN
Algo: NETHERLANDS WIN
Germany vs Ivory Coast, Group E, kick-off 4pm ET, 9pm BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 3/5. Germany’s game against Curacao was too easy, a 7-1 win. Ivory Coast will be keen to give them a reality check.
Watch Rating: 5/5. While playing against inferior opposition on Sunday, some of Germany’s attacking play was irresistible. You should want to see more. That also applies to Ivory Coast winger Yan Diomande. The 19-year-old lit up their opening match against Ecuador (the Ivorians won 1-0, thanks to a 90th-minute goal) and will now get to test himself against one of the elite teams in the competition.
The Athletic Expert Says: “Curacao were the ideal way for Germany’s players to build form, confidence and understanding. Florian Wirtz, Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz were creative and dangerous, Joshua Kimmich was everywhere and Julian Nagelsmann was able to use his deep squad.
“Our Germany reporter Seb Stafford-Bloor explained how that opening victory has settled any nerves. He said: ‘The win over Curacao has essentially guaranteed Germany a place in the next round. That’s alleviated plenty of anxiety after the twin group-stage eliminations from the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. Nagelsmann’s selection was seen as a success and Wirtz and Musiala each had his best game for the national team in a long time. The Germans are feeling pretty good about tournament life and the players all seem relaxed and at ease at their official duties.’
Yan Diomande will be a threat to Germany (Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
“Ivory Coast will give them more to think about than Curacao, particularly Diomande, who was electric against Ecuador and provided a constant threat with his pace and dynamism.
“Emerse Fae’s side had to ride their luck at times in that back-and-forth opening game as Ecuador hit the bar twice in the opening half hour, but their defence stood strong and they were able to use their depth in attacking areas to re-energise their attack — it was substitute Amad who scored the late winner.”
The Athletic Experts: GERMANY WIN
Guest subscriber Susu: DRAW
Six-year-old Wilfred: GERMANY WIN
Stanley the dog: IVORY COAST WIN
Algo: GERMANY WIN
Ecuador vs Curacao, Group E, kick-off 8pm ET, 1am BST
Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.) BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 2/5. Ecuador did a lot of good things against Ivory Coast but couldn’t find the net. If Curacao can shrug off their opening-game spanking and frustrate their opponents, this match might not be a foregone conclusion.
Watch Rating: 3/5. This match in Kansas City might depend on which version of Curacao we get — the team from the first half who put up a good fight against Germany and were only 2-1 down after 45 minutes, or the one that wilted in the second period.
The Athletic Expert Says: “When Livano Comenencia equalised for Curacao against Germany, the scenes on the pitch and in the stands showcased exactly what the World Cup is all about. It was an amazing moment and can never be taken away from those players.
“The 83rd-ranked team in the world scored just before the hydration break, but that pause allowed ninth-rated Germany to take stock and eventually they seized control. Coach Dick Advocaat needs to focus on the positives his players can take from that goal and the 17 minutes of play after it until Germany scored their second. Any game at this tournament will be an uphill struggle for the World Cup debutants, and their defending from set pieces must improve.
Dick Advocaat must use his vast experience to help Curacao rally from a 7-1 opening loss to Germany (Robin van Lonkhuijsen/ANP/ AFP via Getty Images)
“Ecuador were on the end of a heartbreaking late winner from Ivory Coast attacker Amad. The majority of their elite talent is in the defensive areas, and the fears about whether they had enough goals in the team were laid bare in that opening game. Still, they can count themselves unfortunate as they hit the bar twice in the opening half-hour.
“If they can continue to remain patient in possession and counter-press with the aggression they did, in the first half especially, against Ivory Coast, the chances will come.”
The Athletic Experts: ECUADOR WIN
Guest subscriber Susu: ECUADOR WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: ECUADOR WIN
Stanley the dog: DRAW
Algo: ECUADOR WIN
Tunisia vs Japan, Group F, kick-off 12am (midnight) ET, 5am BST
Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.) BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 2/5. Given how poor Tunisia were in their opening game, this should be a relatively comfortable win for Japan.
Watch Rating: 3/5. Japan are always good to watch, although they continue to lose key players.
The Athletic Expert Says: “Missing the quality of Wataru Endo, Kaoru Mitoma and Takumi Minamino was always going to have an impact, but Japan showed their resilience to come from behind twice to earn a point in their opening game against the Netherlands and continued to carry out the principles head coach Hajime Moriyasu has drilled into his players.
“Japan will be without Takefusa Kubo, who went off injured in that 2-2 draw with the Dutch. He was tasked with carrying a significant portion of the creativity with Mitoma and Minamino absent. Now their attacking options have dwindled further.
“The inquest into Tunisia’s 5-1 defeat to Sweden saw head coach Sabri Lamouchi removed from his position and replaced with Herve Renard, who was Saudi Arabia’s manager when they beat eventual champions Argentina in the group stage in Qatar four years ago. The 54-year-old Lamouchi, who had only taken over in January, became the first manager/head coach to be sacked during a World Cup since 1998.
“Tunisia were a mess in that opening game, lacking identity and tactical approach. With a new manager and a clean slate, these guys have to be much improved moving forward.”
The Athletic Experts: JAPAN WIN
Guest subscriber Susu: JAPAN WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: JAPAN WIN
Stanley the dog: JAPAN WIN
Algo: JAPAN WIN
