Tina Black vs. Melissa Amaya is the women’s strawweight final of The Ultimate Fighter 34, not a standard UFC debut matchup. The winner is expected to receive the TUF tournament title and a UFC contract, giving the bout more at stake than an ordinary three-round contest.
Black is listed around -210 on the average moneyline, while Amaya sits at +176. That puts Black’s implied chance around 70 percent by tracking new sports betting platforms, compared with 30 percent for Amaya. The market opened much tighter, with Amaya at -115 and Black at -101, so betting has moved toward the Brazilian fighter in the days since the lines went up. That movement is understandable.
Tina Black vs. Melissa Amaya Odds, Prediction and Pick for TUF 34 Final
It is also an all-Team Daniel Cormier final. Black advanced through the tournament after winning her quarter-final and semi-final, while Amaya reached the final with stoppage wins over Anna Melisano and GiGi Canuto. Their September 26 meeting at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas sits on the Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos card alongside the TUF 34 bantamweight final between Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu and Mehemmedeli Osmanli.
For bettors, the conservative play is Black straight up. Those looking for a plus-money angle can consider Black by decision, while Amaya by decision is the underdog result that best fits a fight where Black cannot establish her usual rhythm. As always, check the latest line before placing a wager: MMA odds can move sharply after weigh-ins.
Tina Black has moved from a near pick’em to a clear betting favourite for her UFC debut against unbeaten Melissa Amaya at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos on Saturday, September 26. Black’s experience, recent activity and proven finishing record make her the pick, but Amaya’s unbeaten run gives the underdog a path if she can turn this into a disciplined three-round fight. The women’s strawweight contest is scheduled for the main card at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas.
Black enters with the deeper resume and has already competed in recognised promotions including Invicta FC and A1 Combat. She is 15-4 in the record used for this UFC matchup, while Amaya is 8-0. Black owns a 5-foot-4 frame with a 63-inch reach; Amaya is also 5-foot-4 and has a one-inch reach edge at 64 inches. Both are listed as orthodox.
Black, 31, has been fighting professionally since 2016 and has faced setbacks as well as wins, which can be useful when a fight becomes uncomfortable. Her record includes six stoppages in 19 victories across her full professional career: five by knockout or TKO and one by submission. She has also gone the distance in 13 bouts, so she is not limited to an early finish.
Amaya, 31, brings an unbeaten record but has a long layoff between her last listed fight and this UFC appearance. Her latest win came against Megumi Sugimoto by first-round TKO in June 2025. Before that, she stopped Samantha Jean-Francois in round two in June 2024, earned a majority decision over Gillian Noll in April 2023 and submitted Alitzel Mariscal in 2022.
For all the tournament stakes and the shift in the betting market, Black remains the sensible selection. Her longer professional record, recent run of wins and experience in fights that have gone deep give her a useful edge over three rounds, while Amaya’s unbeaten record keeps the upset route live if she can control the pace and keep exchanges clean. The pick is Tina Black to win by decision, with Amaya by decision the value-minded alternative for bettors backing the underdog.
