UFC Abu Dhabi ’s best betting props, parlays and picks

UFC Abu Dhabi goes down this weekend (Sat., July 25, 2026) from Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. There’s not much fanfare for this event, despite there being a No. 2-ranked Light Heavyweight in the main event. Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov will be scheduled for five rounds on Saturday, with Guskov coming in to replace Khalil Rountree Jr.

Ankalaev will want to claim a 205-pound title shot with a win, but he’s never been top of mind for either the promotion or the fans.

The co-main is Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov. That booking shows what UFC thinks of the former title challenger. He’s been sent into enemy territory, here, to fight a hyped, albeit unranked, fighter with just two UFC bouts under his belt.

Rounding out the main card is Islam Dulatov vs. Wellington Turman, Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune vs. Magomed Zaynukov and Abubaker Vagaev vs. Sayid Izagakhmaev.

The “Prelims” are headlined by Valter Walker vs. Thomas Petersen. Walker is going for his fifth heel hook win in a row! The “Prelims” also have Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Sam Patterson and Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Abu Dhabi Main Card Money Line Odds

Magomed Ankalaev (-535) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+400)

This is Ankalaev’s first fight since he lost to (and was posterized by) Alex Pereira at UFC 320 back in Oct. 2025 (see it here). That loss cost Anakalaev the title, which he’d won from Pereira seven months earlier. Ankalaev earned his first shot at “Poatan” with a 12-fight undefeated streak in UFC. He was preparing to fight Khalil Rountree Jr. in this spot, but the “War Horse” fell out the fight last week.

Guskov was getting ready to fight Jan Blachowicz in Serbia in August. He slides in here to get his first UFC main event, though. His last fight was a draw against Blachowicz in Dec. 2025. Most thought the draw was a fair decision after Guskov almost put away Blachowicz in the second round to earn 10-8 scores. Before that, Guskov scored a technical knockout on Nikita Krylov (see it here) and a submission on Billy Elekana (see it here).

Ankalaev’s lack of charisma and any kind of X-Factor, will always make bets against him seem quite tempting. Guskov also feels a little like a new toy in this realm of the Light Heavyweight division and he’s coming off a sexy run of results. However, Ankalaev is very good at winning mixed martial arts (MMA) fights. He’s only failed to do that three times in 24 bouts. One of those was that Hail Mary submission loss to Paul Craig, one was that loss to future Hall of Famer Pereira and the other was a draw to the aforementioned Blachowicz, which he should have won. I’m struggling to imagine Guskov doing something to join that list.

Guskov might be able to have some success on the feet with Ankalaev, but I think he might struggle to stay on his feet. His takedown defense is a porous 57 percent. Other than Zac Pauga, every UFC fighter who has attempted a takedown on Guskov has gotten one.

Ankalaev doesn’t focus much on wrestling, but he has that ability in his locker. He only lands 0.79 takedowns per fifteen minutes. But I think he might try those out here, given how Guskov seems to struggle with that area of the game.

I can’t take the moneyline on Ankalaev and the point spread, at -13.5, feels too big considering Guskov does have knockout power in his hands. The round total is 2.5 with the over at -114 and the under at -145. That’s a very tough line.

I’m struggling to find something I like when it comes to this fight. I think Ankalaev wins, but I’m torn as to whether it’s a decision or a stoppage right around that 2.5-round mark.

For my best bet I’m going to take a parlay of Ankalaev to win and over 1.5 rounds. It’s pretty safe and boring, but the odds are -120. I’m not seeing anything else I like better than that.

Best bet: Magomed Anakalaev to win and Over 1.5 (-120)

Steve Erceg (-115) vs. Ramazan Temirov (-105)

Erceg got a good win over Tim Elliott in May. Before that, he registered a decent win over Ode Osbourne. Those two victories followed his loss to Brandon Moreno, which I think was closer than the unanimous decision suggests. He’s now 5-3 in UFC and best remembered for losing to then champion Alexandre Pantoja in a fight where he had Pantoja on the ropes. Erceg was given that title shot after just three wins in UFC.

Meanwhile, it’s been more than one year since we saw Temirov. In March 2025, he scored a unanimous decision over the mercurial Charles Johnson. Before that, he TKO’d CJ Vergara in his UFC debut.

“Temurlan” is now 19-2 as a professional.

Despite his name ending in “ov,” Temirov is not much of a wrestler. He likes to swing for the fences with his overhand right and also spam spinning kicks to the body. I think Erceg is good enough on the feet to avoid all that and also land with some nice, clean straight punches down the middle. He has a five-inch reach advantage, too, so that should help.

Erceg is also the more willing wrestler. Temirov hasn’t been taken down in UFC yet, but his two past opponents aren’t known for going for takedowns. Erceg, I think, will want to limit his time on the feet a little bit. I can see him going for takedowns and landing one or two. Those, together with some effective striking can probably win him the decision.

After that Kai Kara-France technical knockout loss, though, I am a little worried that one of Temirov’s big shots might sneak through. Even so, I believe Erceg is the better fighter in this match-up and that should take precedence when it comes to this decision.

Best bet: Steve Erceg moneyline (-115)

Islam Dulatov (-750) vs. Wellington Turman (+525)

Dulatov impressed in his proper UFC debut one year ago, when he stopped Adam Fugitt (see that here). That got him to 12-1 as a professional. His only loss was his pro debut, losing a decision to Gjoni Palokaj as a 19 year-old. Palokaj is a recent OKTAGON MMA title challenger. Dulatov has a 30-second submission win over Will Chope on his record, too.

Turman is 3-6 in UFC and hasn’t fought since 2023, when he was submitted by Jared Gooden. His UFC wins were over Misha Cirkunov, Sam Alvey and Markus Perez.

Dulatov is the biggest favorite on the card … and for good reason. He’s a top prospect with a lot of skills and he’s fighting someone who UFC probably forgot was on its books.

Best bet: Islam Dulatov by KO/TKO/DQ (-190)

Damian Rzepecki (+285) vs. Magomed Zaynukov (-360)

The 31 year-old Zaynukov is 9-0 in his MMA career. He earned his UFC contract with a decision on Contender Series in Oct. 2025 (where he out-struck his opponent 235 to 72). Despite having not fought much, Zaynukov has become a viral sensation due to the mishearing of his “Chanco” nickname.

Rzepecki, on the other hand, is 10-0 and 24 years-old. Despite being Polish, he’s never gotten a look in KSW. He’s instead fought in the FEN promotion, where he was a champion.

He’s fought scrubs there, but he does have a nice highlight reel.

My big question is … are we getting a little too excited over Zaynukov because of his viral popularity and proximity to Islam Makhachev?

He might be the next big Dagestani fighter, but I think we need to see more than a Contender Series fight to know that. With these kinds of odds, it’s very tempting to take a flyer on Rzepecki (especially when you watch how low Zaynukov’s hands were in that Contender Series fight). However, I doubt Rzepecki has ever seen a wrestler like Zaynukov. I have a feeling Rzepecki might have some success on the feet, but lose this after getting taken down.

There’s a low round total here at 1.5, probably because of the hype around Zaynukov. I’ll take the over, imagining Rzepecki is tough on the feet and forces Zaynukov and his team to slow down and go for a more methodical approach.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-230)

Rizvan Kuniev (-258) vs. Tyrell Fortune (+210)

Kuniev won a snore fest against Jailton Almeida in February. That got Almeida the boot from the promotion. Before that fight, Kuniev was robbed of a decision against Curtis Blaydes (who he hurt in the fight). The Blaydes fight was his UFC debut.

Long-time Bellator veteran Fortune finally debuted for UFC in March. In his debut, he took a decision over Marcin Tybura. Fortune’s record is now 18-3 with his only losses being to Sergey Bilostenniy, Linton Vassell and Timothy Johnson. Among his wins are Matt Mitrione, Jack May and Marcelo Golm.

This might be a God-awful fight to watch. Both these guys are coming off dull fights. I think this is one of those Heavyweight fights where we see two tired guys leaning on each other against the fence for fifteen minutes.

I don’t care about who wins this one, so I’ll just go with the over. If I’m wrong, at least that means the fight is probably more watchable.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-145)

Abubaker Vagaev (-250) vs. Sayid Izagakhmaev (+205)

This is a rare “Chechen vs. Dagestani” match-up in UFC, with Vagaev fighting out of Grozny and Izagakhmaev coming from Makhachkala.

Vagaev is a champion of Ramzan Khadyrov’s Akhmat MMA promotion. He won the title with a decision over Albert Tumenov in Feb. 2025. He also beat Michel Prazeres in Akhmat. He’s 33 and 24-4. Three of his losses are via (technical) knockout.

Izagakhmaev is 31 and 22-3. He debuted with a split decision loss to Nicolas Dalby in November. That was his first loss since getting submitted by Carlston Harris back in UAE Warriors in 2021. His other pro loss was also to a UFC vet; Elias Silverio in 2018.

I don’t know much about either of this guys, but I’ll take Izagakhmaev because he’s gotten a look in UFC before and I don’t trust wins for Chechen fighters in Akhmat MMA.

Best bet: Sayid Izagakhmaev moneyline (+205)

UFC Abu Dhabi ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Ismael Bonfim (+150) vs. Axel Sola (-180)

Bonfim is on a two-fight losing skid. He was TKO’d by Chris Padilla in his last fight (see it here). He also missed weight for that. Before that, he was stopped by Nazim Sadykhov. Bonfim is now 2-3 in UFC. His other loss was a submission to Benoit Saint-Denis.

Sola, meanwhile, looked great in his UFC debut in Sept. 2025, taking apart Rhy McKee in Paris. His follow up fight was much tougher, though. He and Mason Jones put down their candidate for “Fight of the Year” in at UFC London in March. Sola lost that one by unanimous decision.

That was the first loss of his 13-fight career.

This could be a very fun and wild fight, but I think Sola has a pretty big advantage in this match-up. He’s much taller than Bonfim and has a three inch reach advantage. I think there will be a lot of striking in this bout, but if there is some wrestling, that size for Sola could be crucial.

Sola is mostly a kickboxer, but he’s not afraid to mix it up. He landed three takedowns on Jones in his last fight. Sola having those two dimensions to his game have me picking him over Bonfim here, who I imagine just wants to strike.

Best bet: Axel Sola moneyline (-180)

Valter Walker (-192) vs. Thomas Petersen (+160)

Walker and his leg locks have been terrorizing UFC’s Heavyweight division since 2024 now. After losing his UFC debut, by decision to Lukasz Brzeski, the Brazilian has gone all in on his heel hook and has won his last four bouts with that move. No one has ever done anything like that and he’s not showing any signs of stopping his run anytime soon.

Petersen is 3-3 in UFC and is coming off a majority decision win over Guilherme Pat. He earned a 10-8 third round in that fight. Most onlookers thought that should have made the bout a draw, with Pat probably winning the first two rounds. Petersen has lost two of his last four, both by KO (to Vitor Petrino and Shamil Gaziev).

My pick for this fight is what I want to happen. And I think it might come true, too. Walker is going to extend his heel hook streak and have Petersen tapping in the first round.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (+130)

Dustin Jacoby (-166) vs. Muhammad Said (+140)

Jacoby comes into this bout on a nice three-fight win streak, with all KO finishes. Last time out he put away Julius Walker (see it here). Before that it was Bruno Lopes and Vitor Petrino. Those wins came after he was finished by Dominick Reyes in 2024. He’s 38 now and 10-6-1 in UFC competition.

Said is a UFC newcomer with zero experience on Contender Series, TUF, etc. He’s coming off a TKO win over Luis Henrique da Silva, who went 2-4 in UFC about a decade ago. He’s 30 with a 9-0 record.

This is a curious match-up. Fighters from this part of the world are usually given very winnable fights when the show goes down in UAE, Qatar or Saudi Arabia. But Said has been given a tough, ranked veteran, on a finishing streak.

I don’t think Said looks particularly special, so I have major doubts about whether he can hang with Jacoby. Jacoby is past his prime, but he’s shown — very recently — that at his age he can still crack and put away younger opposition. And Said isn’t even a youngster, he’s 30.

Best bet: Dustin Jacoby moneyline (-166)

Santiago Ponzinibbio (+320) vs. Sam Patterson (-410)

Ponznibbio suffered the fifth (technical) knockout loss of his career in his last fight. That was because of a Daniel Rodriguez left hook in May 2025 (see it here). That came after his technical knockout win over Carlston Harris in Jan. 2025. Ponzinibbio’s UFC record now stands at 12-8. He’ll be 40 in September.

Patterson lost a dull decision to Michael Page at UFC London in March. That was on main card. The loss landed him in the “Prelims” here, despite Patterson having won four straight fights before that (all by stoppage). Among those wins were a standing technical knockout over Trey Waters (see it here) and a big upset over Danny Barlow (see it here).

At this stage in his career, Ponzinibbio seems to have embraced the “I’ll go out on my shield” style of fighting and I think that would be a pretty terrible approach in this bout.

Patterson won’t ever crack elite status, but he’s got clean striking and a lot of power. He’ll also have a five-inch reach advantage in this fight. He will take one to land one, himself. But, I think that reach will mean he’s going to be hitting Ponznibbio first. And I don’t think, at 40, Ponzinibbio will be able to take very much of that.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-125)

Brendson Ribeiro (+500) vs. Magomed Tuchalov (-700)

I’m stunned that Ribeiro is still on UFC’s roster. It seems he’s being kept around for cruel reasons, though. He’s lost his last three fights, all by stoppages. Those opponents were Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev, Oumar Sy and Azamat Murzakanov. In those fights he was a +800, +425 and +500 underdog. He’s been an underdog in every one of his seven UFC fights, including the ones he won over Diyar Nurgozhay and Caio Machado.

Tuchalov is 26 and 7-0. He just knocked out Caio Machado to win the UAE Warriors Light Heavyweight title. He was born in St. Petersburg, Russia, but now fights out of Dubai.

Ribeiro is a professional can and he’s going to get crushed again. I’ll take the under, to avoid that -700 moneyline.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-219)

Nurullo Aliev (-166) vs. Mike Davis (+140)

Aliev is 11-0 after dominating Shem Rock in November for a unanimous decision. His other UFC wins are all unanimous decisions, too. Those are over Joe Solecki and Rafael Alves.

Davis last fought one year ago, when he TKO’d Mitch Ramirez (see it here). Before that, he had a strange loss to Fares Ziam, where he pulled guard and did other things that suggested he came into the fight with an injury. He lost that bout by unanimous decision. He’s only fought three times since Oct. 2022.

So, which Davis is going to show up here?

At his best, I think Davis is capable of surprising the relatively raw Aliev, especially in the grappling department. If he’s not in shape, though, then Aliev’s much improved boxing might cause some problems.

I really like Davis and I have more respect for his strength of schedule than Aliev’s. I think he’s the more complete fighter and I’ll take those slight underdog odds.

Best bet: Mike Davis moneyline (+140)

Abdul Hussein (-470) vs. Cody Gibson (+360)

Hussein is Finnish, but has fought a lot on UAE Warriors. He’s 28 and has a 15-2 record. His last fight was a KO win over UFC veteran Tyson Nam (where he knocked him out cold). He has a 2021 decision loss to Muhammad Mokaev on his record, too.

Gibson turns 39 in September. He was KO’d by Aoriqileng in Oct. 2025 (see it here). Before that, he was submitted by Da’Mon Blackshear.

It’s pretty hard to get too excited about Gibson in this match-up. He’s also coming in on short notice (replacing Muin Gafurov). This screams of the UFC’s practise of offering guys short notice fights, expecting them to turn it down, just so they can extend their contracts. Perhaps the UFC were surprised Gibson said yes to this. Either way, I don’t think he’s got much chance of winning against a man ten years younger than him and who packs a punch.

I think Hussein gets this over quickly.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-180)

UFC Abu Dhabi Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

Magomed Ankalaev to win by split or majority decision (+1400)

I like Ankalaev in this fight, but I don’t love him. I like Guskov, too, but also don’t love him. I do doubt Guskov gets the win here, but I think he might be a pretty game opponent. Both these guys have draws in UFC, so I think there is also potential for something unusual in the scoring or refereeing.

Damian Rzepecki to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+1100)

I don’t know whether to buy or sell on “Chanco” right now; however, I do think he’s getting a little over-hyped after just one Contender Series appearance. If he’s not as good as advertised, maybe the aggressive Rzepecki can expose that.

Two-bet parlay: Walker vs. Petersen Under 1.5 rounds & Dustin Jacoby vs. Muhammad Said Under 1.5 rounds (+475)

Walker is getting that heel hook on Saturday. And I bet it gets it quickly, on the dry leg of Petersen. I think Jacoby vs. Said is a mismatch and Jacoby is in a rich vein of form right now.